I started doing what I do way back in the late 1990’s and have never once deviated from the mantra, “a good flat horse will always beat a good NH horse, over hurdles”. 

I think everyone that is a deeply involved in solving races as I am, was concerned about soft ground for BURDETT ROAD, who was my Profile selection in the first race on this card. I even added this….:

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION – BURDETT ROAD (no bet if it goes soft).

UPDATE: The two horses below have been supported overnight. 

  • (OMM) 12-35 – BURDETT ROAD – 5/2 > 7/4 – WON 9/4
  • (OMM) 12-35 – I STILL HAVE FAITH – 14/1 > 7/1

The Market Movers though suggested nobody had lost any faith in this Royal Ascot winner (on good to firm), on the soft they now had, and to say he delivered in spades would be an understatement.

Held up last for the majority of the race….and his jockey eating mud….they reached two out and he simply cut through them like a hot knife through butter….he went from last to first in a flash, tore up the hill and won easily by just shy of seven lengths. 

This horse represents a trend I spotted at the sales, that being good flat bred horses are once again being sold to go hurdling, as opposed to being sold to race abroad. He is a genuine Triumph Hurdle contender based on this run, especially as he’ll be even better on better ground. He cannot hurdle like a proper hurdler, but when you have that much speed to burn, if you stay on your feet, you’ll be incredibly hard to beat.

I treat the Amateur Riders races in much the same way I do the Cross Country events….I simply will not bet them. The first four home in the 1-10pm returned SP’s of 12/1, 12/1, 18/1 and 16/1….a Trifecta of nearly £4.5k….nope, a race I’ll always ignore for betting purposes….might even add a skull and crossbones to this, and the cheese wedge farces.

The six runner Novice’s Chase came next and again, Profiling got it wrong. Have a read!

GOOD RISK AT ALL jumped like a complete novice at times and Sam’s dad’s pair beat him hollow.

The big Handicap came next and yep, one of the first horses rules out based on stats and trends, was our winner, STAGE STAR. He passed the age stats fine….but then the weight ranges said “no….Top end of the scale, we want to leave out horses carrying more than 11st 5lb as only TAQUIN DU SEUIL, who carried 11st 11lb…it takes a very good horse to defy weight like that, in these handicaps so I’ll remove those with a lump of lead:

STAGE STAR carried 2lb more than my top end permitted me to take forward….now that might sound a tad pedantic but, rules are rules!

Even if he had passed that test, he would have gone at the next stage because favourites do not win that race and, he went off the 4/1 favourites. Horses making seasonal debut have no chance….STAGE STAR was making seasonal debut. 

He bucked three trends and must be some horse.

I’ve mentioned how much emphasis I now place in market moves and in the next, but sometimes things happen so late I cannot get the news out to you….BUDDY ONE, 6/1 > 9/4F….the worst kept secret on course apparently. 

We had three Irish trained runners in the first five home, including the winner, and sometimes you just hold your hands up and say, “ya got me!”

At 3-30pm we had the Intermediate Chase and again my Profiling wasn’t worth a carrot…..but Post Racing members had this delivered to their inboxes:

🏇 CHELTENHAM 3-30

CLASS 3

HISTORY – 10 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

  • ✳️ – GYENYAME….-23 (46%) – 6/1 > 5/1 > 11/2
  • ✳️ – RESPLENDENT GREY….-29 (47%) – 3/1 > 7/2
  • ✳️ T – TIGER JET….-30 (44%) – 14/1 > 20/1
  • ✳️ – SPRINGWELL BAY….-38 (42%) – 9/4 > 2/1
  • ROCK MY WAY….-38 (60%) – 16/1 > 10/1 > 11/1
  • WONDERFUL EAGLE….-40 (24%) – 9/1 > 8/1 > 9/1
  • T H – ANOTHER CHOICE….-40 (0%) – 20/1 > 25/1
  • FORTUNEFAVORSDBOLD….-40 (29%) – 33/1 > 66/1
  • T – LONDONOFFICECALLIN….-40 (57%) – 11/2 > 9/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS

ONLY THE FAVOURITE IS HOLDING IT’S MARKET POSITION NOW AND WHILST MY TOP RATED HORSE WAS HIGHLIGHTED AS A MOVER IN THE OMMS EARLIER…NOW BACK OUT TO 11/2 AGAIN AND LILAC.

SUCH A SHAME THE WEATHER HAS COME TO RUIN A BRILLIANT DAY OF RACING, AND THAT ALL THOSE HORSES THAT THEIR CONNECTIONS DECLARED WHEN IT WAS GOOD TO SOFT MIGHT AS WELL HAVE STAYED AT HOME. 

SOMETHING HAS TO WIN THESE RACES BUT NO CASH GOING DOWN HERE.

The only runner on my Ratings, that was holding it’s place and was solid on the tissue, was the winner, SPRINGWELL BAY.

Those in blue are drifters, those in lilac are what I call fluctuating. I declined to get involved here.

The finale on the card was the Bumper. Profiling got it down to a pair and my way of working a play on a race is always to dutch first, then look for something I like for a solo punt.

The final two here were:

  • BABY KATE – WON 7/2
  • EASY PEASY

I landed my dutch but opted for EASY PEASY as my solo punt….and her trainer was another on the day to tell the stewards he had no idea why his horse had run so badly.