I watched only today, as I’m sure most did. As soon as I heard the second last fence was missing because that part of the ground was waterlogged, and the bend pushed right out to accommodate the horses going around it, I gave myself a pat on the back.

I mentioned in the first Newsletter that Friday looked the weakest of the three days….wrong…it’s definitely this one!

Very weak racing for the track, apart from the Greatwood Hurdle, the first two races I’m unable to work with….and, the third feels just as bad.

CHELTENHAM 1-15

Only two previous running’s of this race so we’ll be relying on THE PROFF, and the markets.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – NONE

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

  •  ACT OF INNOCENCE
  • AMBIENTE FRIENDLY
  • THE EGYPTIAN GINGE

CHELTENHAM 1-45

Another race that I only have three runs to work with, in its current guise. Previously a Novices’ Chase until 2021, it is now a Novices’ Limited handicap, which has seen a big boost to field sizes. The last two running’s as a Novices chase saw 4 runners in 2020 and just two lining up in 2021.

That again means I’m trusting to the OMMS, and THE PROFF.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – NONE

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

  • JORDAN’S CROSS
  • JAX JUNIOR
  • QUEENSBURY BOY

CHELTENHAM 2-20

Without a doubt we want to be working with horses aged six, and seven….that covers the last six winners, and seven of the last nine.

  • DR T  ECKLEBURG
  • BATTLE OF RIDGEWAY

That being the case, I already have my dutch but I’d like a solo play in place so looking at the weights I have to put up DR T J ECLEBURG as he carries in excess of 11st, as have six of the last seven winners but he’s a double figure price, and no winner has returned an SP bigger than 4/1 in the last seven years.

I’m going 20/80 of course because this race feels very weird. The front four on the tissue are all aged nine, and I cannot find a horse of that age having won the race previously.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – DR T J ECKLEBURG – 20/80

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

  • GLENGOULY
  • TORNEO
  • UNCLE PHIL

CHELTENHAM 2-55

Plenty of back history to this one so we can have a proper pop at it.

Age groupings….a proper palaver this. In the last eight years our winners have been aged 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 so not a hope of applying that as my first piece of criteria. The front six on the tissue for this are aged 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.

I’ll have to kick off with weight ranges.

Eight of the last 11 winners carried more than 11st and that means one of the following trio will be in the winners enclosure:

​

  • PROTEKTORAT
  • SAM BROWN
  • BEAUPORT

Next I’ll go to market and since 2015 we’ve had six winners in the front three on the tissue, and that includes five of the last six so I have to go down that road and take the following through to the next stage:

  • PROTEKTORAT
  • BEAUPORT

I’ll happily dutch the two for my profit to buttons because this is run over a trip I’ve filed under “weird”….three miles three and a half furlongs….and none has run over this trip previously.

Only one of that pair has winning form at Cheltenham and that means my Profiling selection will be PROTEKTORAT…but he’s only 1-8 here, BEAUPORT 0-2.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – PROTEKTORAT

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

  • PROTEKTORAT
  • BEAUPORT
  • TANGANYIKA

CHELTENHAM 3-30

The Greatwood Hurdle and as usual, a decent sized field, 20 going to post tomorrow, and mighty competitive.

It’s the four and five year olds we’ll work with. They have won 14 of the last 20 renewals, and the last three so….:

  • GIBBS ISLAND
  • LAAFI
  • ALEXEI
  • PUTAPOUNDINTHEJAR
  • RUBBER BALL
  • SERIOUS CHALLENGE

We have had no winning favourite in the last 10 years but eight of those 10 were sitting front six in the market so I’m looking second favourite, to sixth favourite as I type.

  • GIBBS ISLAND
  • ALEXEI
  • SERIOUS CHALLENGE

I’ve a nice looking three horse dutch already…my bet has been placed.

Despite the competitiveness of this race, 12 of the last 20 winners, and four of the last five winners, all returned a single figure price and applying that would remove GIBBS ISLAND so, I’m looking at one of the others pair for my Profile selection.

I’m going to work with SERIOUS CHALLENGE because he is 1-1 on slow ground, whereas ALEXEI, who did us a massive turn in the Podcast a couple of weeks ago, and is 2-4 trip, won his race on genuine good ground.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – SERIOUS CHALLENGE

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

  • CELTIC DINO
  • KING WILLIAM RUFUS
  • ALEXEI

CHELTENHAM 4-00

No point at all my telling you about gas groupings, of weight when it comes to Bumpers so it has to come down to market positioning and if your are out of the front three on the tissue as the tapes go up, you are most unlikely to be winning.

​Three of the last four winners were front two, seven of the last 10 front three….:

  • BUD FOX
  • SAINT JENNAIS
  • CHICKER

I have just noted SAINT JENNAIS is now a non-runner and of the two left, my eye is drawn to CHICKER.

BUD FOX is a very short priced favourite at 5/4 but his trainer, Gavin Cromwell, has only had one winner from his last 50 runners, in the last two weeks, whereas Fergal O’Brien, who trains CHICKER, a previous course and distance winner, is 5-45 in that same two week period, and trades 13/2.

I’ll go 20/80 that one.

​

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – CHICKER – 20/80

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

  • CHICKER
  • SAINT CLOVIS
  • SAINT JENNAIS

Enjoy the rest of your evening!