Day 1 went very well despite the weather. However they have now called for an inspection at 7-30am tomorrow and I’m not a bit surprised as it’s going to pelt it down there overnight.

This is the work for Day 2….if it goes ahead.

CHELTENHAM 12-35

All 3-y-o’s and weight ranges do not count for a hill of beans so the only place we can start looking for our winner here is the market.

Historically, the winner will be front two on the tissue. It has been for the last six years, and eight of the last nine.

In the last 10 years the winner was never out of the front four in the market, as the tapes went up.

Currently it is 12/1 bar four, so history looks set to repeat itself.

The front two are where I’m looking though, and they are:

  • PRECIOUS MAN
  • PARCHMENT

PRECIOUS MAN makes debut for Dan Skelton having raced only twice before in France. Both wins came at Auteuil on heavy and very soft ground.

PARCHMENT makes debut for David pipe, having raced just once in France for Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm.

How good are they? No idea. The market is clearly “guessing” they are very decent and to split them for a definitive selection, I’ll refer back to market position of our last 10 winners.

We have had five winners trading second favourite in the last six years, and as that’s all I have to go on, the Pipe runner gets the gig.

I want to draw your attention to one horse though, that has been winking at me since I started working this race.

SECRET FORCE….an ex-Godolphin horse, by FRANKEL.

Ran twice for Charlie Appleby before being sold for £40k. Ran once for Kevin Philippart De Foy and was then sent to Gavin Cromwell. One run on the flat over there, which he won. Less than a month later he’s over hurdles and bolting in by just over six lengths.

I’ll be watching the market regarding that one.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – PARCHMENT

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

CHELTENHAM 1-10

An 18 runner Amateur riders’ event which is another I’d glaze over looking at, on any other day.

My first shortlist here will consist of horses aged six, and seven. In the last 20 years they have taken first prize in 11 renewals, and also seven of the last nine:

  • IDEAL DES BORDES
  • KELCE
  • AUREA FORTUNA

That has got shut of 15 of them already so this isn’t going to take long at all.

The weight ranges suggest we only want horses carrying 11st of more going forward and we drop another Tony Martin trained favourite in AUREA FORTUNA….it’s one of:

  • IDEAL DES BORDES
  • KELCE

Last year this race was won by the horse I chose to put up as THE ONE at the Festival, TRANSMISSION, trained by Neil Mulholland. That winner went off 11/4 and without a doubt you want to be front three on the tissue here….which KELCE is.

KELCE is also trained by….Neil Mulholland.

Last year Mulholland ran TRANSMISSION at the October meeting, where he placed second. KELCE ran at the October meeting this year, finishing fourth.

He booked the services that day of Mr A P Ryan…and he is on board tomorrow.

He’ll do for me.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – KELCE – 20/80

CHELTENHAM 1-45

Only six going to post for this Novices’ Chase so another that will take just a few minutes to produce a Profile selection for.

Six year olds have won the last five of these, and 12 of the last 20 and that has to be my age group range right there:

  • JULY FLOWER
  • BE AWARE

Both arrive a winner last time out….very much a plus as seven of the last 10 winners did likewise.

Weight ranges for this kind of race are null so it has to be market position. Top four is a “must have”…they are front two on the tissue….dutch?

We have had five winning favourites in the last decade and three in the last four years so as that’s the only way to split the pair, my selection is the Irish raider, JULY FLOWER.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – JULY FLOWER

CHELTENHAM 2-20

One of my favourite races of the season.

In the last 20 years this has gone to a horse aged seven in 50% of those races, and that’s a heck of a stat when you consider horses aged 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 have taken first prize in that time span.

Seven year olds have won the last two renewals, and I’m going to make it my go to range here:

  • COMING UP EASY
  • VINCENZO
  • THEATRE NATIVE
  • CONYERS HILL
  • HOE JOLY SMOKE
  • ISSAR D’AIRY

Weight ranges span everything from 10st 2lb, to 11st 11lb but the dominant range would be 10st 13lb – 11st 7b and in that list above our qualifiers are:

  • COMING UP EASY
  • VINCENZO
  • THEATRE NATIVE
  • CONYERS HILL

Down to four and a dutch.

We have had just one winning favourite in the last 10 years and in that decade we have seen winners returning SP’s of 10/1, 12/1, 25/1, 14/1, 10/1…however, five of the last nine winners were sitting front four on the tissue:

  • VINCENZO

The only qualifier and my profile selection.

Are there any negatives? Absolutely. If he wins this on seasonal debut, he’ll be just the second to do that in the last 10 years, but seven of the last 20 have done it, including STAGE STAR in 2023.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – VINCENZO – 20/80

CHELTENHAM 2-55

It’s the five and six year olds we want onside here. Three of the last four winners were aged six, 13 of the last 20 aged five (5), or six (8)….:

  • LONG DRAW
  • PATRIOTIK
  • KIKIJO

Another race where we get shut of the majority, as just three of the 10 going to post make the cut.

Weight ranges do suggest we look to horses carrying 11st or more. They have taken four of the last five, and five of the last eight running’s so, weight isn’t stopping them.

Two come forward:

  • LONG DRAW
  • PATRIOTIK

Six of the last eight winners were trading front three on the tissue and the only one of that pair doing that tomorrow is:

  • LONG DRAW

He is of the most dominant age grouping of the pair I applied above and he’s got the job of carrying my shekels.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – LONG DRAW

CHELTENHAM 3-30

Last year Tony Martin had it right off with a four year old carrying 10st 2lb but that was just one of two from that age group, that has been successful in the last 20 years.

Tony Martin was winning it for the second time in three years with that one.

In recent years 2018 – 2024 inclusive, this has been easier to solve that it had been since 2005….12/1, 40/1, 16/1, 12/1, 14/1, 16/1, 12/1, 25/1 up to 2017.

My preferred age grouping is the same as for that race above…horses aged five, or six, have won 17 of the last 20….has to be one of:

  • ROYAL INFANTRY
  • FRENCH SHIP
  • JURANCON
  • HOLLOWAY QUEEN
  • ROYAL RAMBLER
  • DE TEMPS EN TEMPS
  • HAMSIYANN
  • KAP BPY
  • LAST RODEA
  • GIVE HIM A CHANCE
  • C’EST DIFFERENT

Last years winner, HAMSIYANN is in there again but I cannot find a horse having ever won back to back running’s of this race.

Weight ranges again suggest we go with horses carrying 11st or more. We would have found seven of the last 10 winners in that banding.

  • ROYAL INFANTRY
  • FRENCH SHIP
  • JURANCON
  • HOLLOWAY QUEEN
  • ROYAL RAMBLER
  • DE TEMPS EN TEMPS

That removes last years winner.

Down to six.

Market position next and the last three running’s have gone to the favourite, as have six of the last 10 renewals.

Five of the last seven winners have returned SP’s no bigger than 4/1 and for my dutch I’ll take:

  • ROYAL INFANTRY
  • FRENCH SHIP
  • JURANCON

The favoueite has to be my Profiling selection and right now that is JURANCON. He races first time after a wind-op and has been missing from the track for 259 days, but the last two winners were making seasonal debut after a long break, too.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – JURANCON

CHELTENHAM 4-00

Only two previous running’s of this one so no Profiling can be produced I’m afraid.

Both running’s so far have gone to Irish trained horses, both of which were trading second favourite at the off.

Keep an eye on CELESTIAL TUNE.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – NONE