Day one of the November meeting, there days of quality racing and we have a buzz about this place right now.

 You have Profiling, and THE PROFF’S TOP THREE for all six races and over 1600 words to read….grab brew…or something stronger.

I’ll have the OMMS in THE WORKS NEWSLETTER, which will go out just after 7-00pm.

CHELTENHAM 1-10

In my day job races like this would be passed over and not given a second thought but it’s Cheltenham so, here goes….

This race has been won by 5-y-o’s for the last five consecutive running’s, and in eight of the last nine so my first shortlist contains only horses of that age grouping:

KALIUM

KAP VERT

LUCKY MANIFEST

MARLACCO

A PAI DE NOM

LORD OF ALL SAINTS

That removes 14 of the 20 going to post.

Next we move on to weight ranges and in I’m thinking we want to work with horses carrying less than 11st 10lb. in the last six years we would have netted all winners of this by applying that banding and also eight of the 11 winners so:

KAP VERT

LUCKY MANIFEST

MARLACCO

A PAI DE NOM

LORD OF ALL SAINTS

One gone.

The market position of our winners is interesting, given the kind of race it is. Eight of the last 10 winners were sitting front two on the tissue at the off and applying that to those above, we take forward:

LUCKY MANIFEST

A PAI DE NOM

Currently around 11/2 and 6/1 respectively in places, that’s my own dutch sorted out.

In the last five years a trend has appeared relating to the number of days since they last appeared on a racetrack and none of those five winners had been missing for more than 22 days….getting them fit and ready for this.

For those simply looking for a 20/80 here I would suggest LUCKY MANIFEST, as he arrives a winner last time out and three of the last five winners also had that 1 next to their names.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION = LUCKY MANIFEST – 20/80

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

KALIUM

A PAI DE NOM

BECTIVE ABBEY

LUCKY MANIFEST

CHELTENHAM 1-45

A new race introduced for the old timers of racing.

I do not have time for novelty races at the best of times and like the cross-country races, I don’t feel they have a place on such cards.

Impossible to Profile, obviously, and we will rely on the markets tomorrow.

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

GUNSIGHT RIDGE

LORD BADDESLEY

NUMITOR

CHELTENHAM 2-20

Only five going to post but the tissue suggests it’s competitive. It is currently 9/4 > 6/1 the field.

Profiling small field races is pretty much a waste of time and takes only a few minutes but it never feels “satisfactory”….if we nail the winner though, we’ll not be overly concerned.

The “go to” age goups….I’d suggest six year olds. They have won four in the last 10 years, in a race that has been won by horses aged 5, 6, 7, 8….:

WADE OUT

DOUBLE POWERFUL

In the last 10 years we again see that horses arriving having had a run most certainly have an advantage. Eight of the last 10 winners arrived having raced no longer than 22 days previously. Both named above fit.

Market position next as weight ranges do not count here. Eight of the last nine winners were front three on the tissue….both fit that criteria set, too.

However, favourites have a decent record in this, the last two winners went of the “jolly”, as have four of the last six, and five of the last nine.

Our winner, therefore, has to be WADE OUT….but I’ve dutched!

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – WADE OUT

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

LEAVE OF ABSENCE

WADE OUT

ISAAC DES OBEAUX

CHELTENHAM 2-55

The winner of this race for the last two years, JONBON, is currently odds on to make it a hat trick of wins and unlike previous races, here you need to be turning up first time out this season.

Only one horse has won this in the last eight years not having been missing for 200+ days, and that was DEFI DU SEUIL, who arrived having been off the track for 199 days, back in 2019.

If JONBON wins tomorrow, he’ll be the first nine year old to win since SPRINTER SACRE back in 2015, and he will be only the first to win this three times.

GUAVAIN, FOX NORTON, NUBE NEGRA, JONBON….all won this twice in succession but none has three.

Horses aged 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 have won this, but nine of the last 12 winners were aged six, or seven.

Weight ranges do not apply but most certainly, tissue position does as the last 10 winners were all front two on the tissue.

JONBON

L’EUA DU SUD

Looking at things logically, JONBON should win. He is rated 13lb superior to L‘EAU DU SUD, but only has to give him 3lb.

However, stats/trends are what Profiling is all about and they suggest JONBON is now too old (he’s good, but no SPRINTER SACRE), has already won two, nothing has won three, so my solo play has to be the Skelton runner.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – L’EAU DU SUD

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

JONBON

L’EAU DU SUD

BROOKIE

CHELTENHAM 3-30

Plenty of back history to this one and straight away I feel you need to be arriving here a winner last time out. Nine of the last 10 had done so and the one that didn’t went off favourite to do so at Chepstow, but fell….who knows what might have happened?

Five year olds….won the last six running’s, and eight of the last 10:

GREAT FLEET

HEADS UP

IMPERFECTLYPERFECT

KING’S BUCKS

MONEYGARROW

NO DRAMA THIS END

WELONLYHAVEDONE

That only removes three of the 10 runners and with all bar the 4-y-o (they do not win this), carrying 11st 2lb, the market has to be our guide to the next shortlist:

Eight of the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue. We had a 22/1 winner in 2023 but that’s an anomaly. There has only been one other winner return a double figure price in the last 20 years, PARLOUR GAMES @ 10/1 in 2014.

First three on the tissue, in that first shortlist are:

GREAT FLEET

HEADS UP

NO DRAMA THIS END

WELONLYHAVEDONE

We have two trading 11/2 joint third favourite, so we’ll take all four. You can dutch for a small profit…why not?

Looking back at the top here, I want only winners of their latest start onside and so, for those that just want to be betting one horse, it is:

HEADS UP

Now, we have a very similar scenario to the one that saw a faller in it’s last race winning this and I do feel WELONLYHAVEDONE would have won but for falling at the last, just as he joined the leader.

I’m with HEADS UP though.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – HEADS UP

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

INTODOMETHINGGOOD

NO DRAMA THIS END

FOUNTAINS BLENHEIN

CHELTENHAM 4-00

An 18 runner Novices’ handicap to finish off day one…and a horse trading favourite that has not seen a hurdle for 718 days, and when he did, he was useless. Seven runs, placed once.

However, ALPHONSE LE GRAND is trained by a guy red hot at shenanigans, Tony Martin.

He trains this horse to be “off”, when he wants it “off….16 runs on the flat, two wins, that netted him £115,675. Is he off tomorrow? I have no idea.

He races off bottom weight because his hurdles form is “pants”, but, of course, he could now be chucked in, if Mr Martin wants this prize.

Let’s see what the runes say.

I’m noting that 14 of the last 20 winners were aged four, or five….that one discussed is a six year old, so doesn’t even make the first cut.:

FORTUNE DE MER

AMANCIO

FRONTIER PRINCE

SHADE OF WINTER

FRENCH EMPEROR

SAGE GREEN

THE EXPENSIVE ONE

PURE GOLD

KATAKANA

LUCKY BERE

BRUANT

AEROPLANE BLONDE

FARRH ECHO

Weight ranges next.

Only one winner has carried less than 10st 9lb in the last 20 years. We have 15 of them carrying between 10st 12lb and 11st 12lb so we’ll take that banding from that first list, and see what happens next:

AMANCIO

FRONTIER PRINCE

SHADE OF WINTER

FRENCH EMPEROR

SAGE GREEN

THE EXPENSIVE ONE

PURE GOLD

KATAKANA

LUCKY BERE

BRUANT

Just three out.

I’m now looking at market positioning. The last two winners were front two on the tissue, as were the winners in 2017 and 2015.

However, 2081 – 2022 inclusive 33/1, 33/1, 33/1, 28/1…a 16/1 winner in 2016.

To get my next shortlist before even attempting to decipher the market, we’ll look for horse that have raced within 45 days….15 of the last 20 winners did so, including all those crazy priced winners (and the two 14/1 winners in 2008 and 2009).

AMANCIO

FRONTIER PRINCE

FRENCH EMPEROR

SAGE GREEN

THE EXPENSIVE ONE

PURE GOLD

KATAKANA

LUCKY BERE

Two removed….it’s that tough a race to work on.

If I say that 12 of the last 20 winners finished first three (or would have done if they had not fallen….WRECKLESS ERIC, last years winner), let’s see where that leaves us:

AMANCIO

FRONTIER PRINCE

FRENCH EMPEROR

KATAKANA

LUCKY BERE

Down to five….like pulling teeth, this one has been, and I’ve worked all the criteria sets that I apply to a race (and more).

It is most likely I have already eliminated the winner. Tony Martin won this in 2013 with a gamble landed, QUICK JACK going off 15/8 in a 19 runner handicap, ridden by Ruby Walsh.

I would not eliminate any of the five in that last shortlist based on my criteria sets and so cannot offer a definitive selection but at the current odds, a five horse dutch would produce a profit….if the favourite fails.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION – NONE

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

FORTUNE DE MER

JACK HYDE

SHADE OF WINTER