The final meeting at Cheltenham before the big one in March and unfortunately a pair have cut up to just four runners.

Next week I’ll start looking for “THE ONE” and if I find it, I’ll have that name in your inbox as soon as possible.

Best of luck tomorrow.

CHELTENHAM 12-05

This is usually a good Festival trial in recent years. Last years winner, JAGWAR, went on to win the Plate Handicap, the winner in 2024, GINNY’S DESTINY, ran second in the Turners, in 2023 it was won by STAGE STAR, who then went on to win the Turners, and in 2018 MISTER WHITTAKER took this race before going on to win the Close brothers Novice’s chase, so whatever wins tomorrow will turn up in March expected to run a big race.

Horses aged six and seven will be where we begin the search for our winner. Since 2007 we have had 14 of the 18 winners in that age banding:

  • PUSH THE BUTTON
  • CALIFET EN VOL
  • QUEBECOIS
  • JORDAN’S CROSS
  • KDEUX SAINT FRAY
  • BARLAVENTO
  • SECRET DES DIEUX
  • KALINE DES BOULLAT

We only removed one from the equation there and we’ll now see if weight ranges produces a shorter short list. I see that eleven of this 18 winners (and seven of the last eight), all carried more than 11st so we’ll work with:

  • PUSH THE BUTTON
  • CALIFET EN VOL
  • QUEBECOIS
  • JORDAN’S CROSS
  • KDEUX SAINT FRAY
  • BARLAVENTO
  • SECRET DES DIEUX

That only removed one….and would have also removed the one we lost as a result of age, SCORSESE.

Markets are the next port of call and since 2016 our winner has been front four on the tissue, with five of the last six winners front three….I’m going front three:

  • CALIFET EN VOL
  • JORDAN’S CROSS
  • BARLAVENTO

My dutch will pay me a profit of around 61% and that bet has already been struck but, looking for a “winner” I’m tracking back those 18 years to see what kind of form those winners arrived in. No fewer than 15 of them arrived having won (7), or finished in the runners up spot (8) and a pair now stride forward:

  • JORDAN’S CROSS
  • BARLAVENTO

The Henderson horse finished third….two of those 18 winners had done so, including JAGWAR last season but, stats and trends suggest we can drop CALIFET EN VOL (already 0-2 at Cheltenham).

Five of the 18 winners had been racing twice during the season they won, which means 13 had raced more often, with seven having raced three times. that means I will post up JORDAN’S CROSS as a 20/80. I’m quietly confident one of the two hits the bullseye as BARLAVENTO has a ton of stuff in his favour, too….extremely lightly raced, 1-1 trip, 2-4 trip.

I reckon I need my dutch.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION – JORDAN’S CROSS – 20/80

CHELTENHAM 12-40

MINELLA YOGA was bought at the Cheltenham sales in November for a stunning £360,000 and the Paul Nicholls trained runner is the best backed horse in the run up to the race 3/1 > 9/4, whilst the still favourite MAESTRO CONTI, trained by Dan Skelton, is easy to bet, 11/10 > 6/4.

This race will be won by a 4-y-o….Einstein eat yer heart out.

Weight ranges matter not a jot and so it’s just the markets offering up a clue. The winner has been front two on the tissue in seven of the last nine running’s and I’ll not ignore that stat.

If the runes read true then one of the two named above will be winning this.

Both are having their second runs for their new handlers, both ran within the 30 days of this race that I’d like to see, both arrived having won last time out, but surprisingly neither trainer has won this race previously.

How to split two novices that are unbeaten in two runs and are open to lots of improvement.

I’m going to work with “trainer in form”….in the last 14 days Nicholls has saddled 33 horses and not had a single winner. Skelton has saddled 61 and had 14 winners, with 67% of his runners actually running to their best….Nicholls just 39%.

Either could win but we’ll have MAESTRO CONTI as our Profiling selection

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – MAESTRO CONTI

CHELTENHAM 1-15

JAGWAR is back to try his hand again at winning on Trials day.

Horses aged seven or eight seem to be the main ages to work with, 11 of the last 18 winners giving us a chance to profit if that trend continues. Our first shortlist contains:

  • JAGWAR
  • BOOSTER BOB
  • DONNACHA
  • MOON D’ORANGE
  • JAVERT ALLEN

As usual, we move along to weight ranges next and horses carrying less than 11st have taken 11 of the last 18 renewals and we’ll stick with that….three of the last four winners and five of the last eight did so.

  • DONNACHA
  • MOON D’ORANGE
  • JAVERT ALLEN

Market positioning says we need a top four place on the tissue at the off. The last four winners were, three of those front two (we’ll use that to plot them later, if needed). Seven of the last nine winners also got caught in the net.

Only one qualifier:

  • JAVERT ALLEN

I will point out that whilst watching this market I have seen DONNACHA trimmed from 25/1 > 12/1 since this tissue was posted up, and the other one, MOON D’ORANGE won this last year. I have dutched!

In the last 16 years two horses have won back to back running’s of this race so, it can be done.

I’ll go 2/80 JAVERT ALLEN

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION – JAVERT ALLEN – 20/80

CHELTENHAM 1-50

The blot on the Cheltenham landscape….a Cross Country race….you know my thoughts on these and I’ll have the dogs out whilst this is being run. I have absolutely no interest in such races and betting on them never crosses my mind.

It’s the first running of this race at the Trials meeting which means with a punch of the air I can say….”nothing to see here….move along now!”

CHELTENHAM 2-25

Only the four runners so we will not be here long.

I make it a two horse race based on age grouping. Only two horses aged 11 have won in the last 18 years and that would rule out L’HOMME PRESSE (last year’s winner), and FLOORING PORTER….so one of GREY DAWNING or SPILLANE’S TOWER appears to be our winner.

GREY DAWNING is 1/2 > 8/13 so easy enough to bet, SPILLANE’S TOWER 4-1 > 5/1 > 4/1.

I can actually make a profit of 20% dutching the pair and have done to level 3 staking.

Which wins? I’m going with SPILLANE’S TOWER.

A couple of significant pointers….GREY DAWNING and the trip. Only one win in four attempts at it, and that was at Aintree, which would feel more like 2 miles 6 furlongs maximum. SPILLANE’S TOWER….1-2 trip…it’s just the ground giving me a concern.

Official Ratings….GREY DAWNING = 166, SPILLANE’S TOWER = 164 so the favourite is only 2lb better officially….but he has to give SPILLANE’S TOWER 6lb, which puts the Irish horse 4lb best in here.

Since going over fences GREY DAWNING has only ever won back to back races once, and that came in his novice days.

My dutch keeps me warm but SPILLANE’S TOWER is a sporting play.

ITSCHELTENHAM PROFILE SELECTION – SPILLANE’S TOWER

CHELTENHAM 3-00

It is absolutely pointless my attempting to Profile a race that has four runners, with two of them trading 50/1 and 80/1.

On official figures SIR GINO (currently the 4/9 favourite, arrives unbeaten, as might THE NEW LION had he not fallen in the Fighting Fifth), is just 1lb the better horse at tomorrow’s weights and it’s, in theory, a toss of a coin job.

Both trainers arrive in great form, a 67% RTF (running to form), each.

Nothing comes across as a profile selection and the only way to split them is to look at Henderson’s record in this race. He has won it four times in the last eight years,  and I’ll expect to see SIR GINO enhance his Champion Hurdle credentials….but I still hope CONSTITUTUION HILL remember when to pick up his feet in march, because I’ve taken 12/1 he does….he won this last year @ 1/12.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION – NONE

CHELTENHAM 3-35

Another small field affair, just six going to post and another odds on favourite in IMPOSE TOI.

On official figures he is 1lb better than STRONG LEADER but that horse wants Aintree, not Cheltenham, where he is already 0-5, IMPOSE TOI 2-3 ground, 3-3 trip, and 1-2 track.

These two horses have met twice this season, IMPOSE TOI winning both times.

Age groupings and weights do not mean much of anything in such races. In the last 10 years horses aged 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 have succeeded, and in 2014 it was won by an 11 year old.

In seven of the last 10 years the winner has been front two on the tissue, with the favourite winning five of those.

IMPOSE TOI is the logical winner but this division is so weak that a handicapper currently trades just 11/2 despite being 15lb wrong with the favourite.

A no bet race for me personally but we’ll give IMPOSE TOI the gig.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – IMPOSE TOI 

CHELTENHAM 4-10

An eight runner novice to conclude the eight race meeting and if MINELLA YOGA does win the opener, expect ACT OF INNOCENCE to go off short. He was beaten just half a length by that Nicholls horse, going off the 2/7 favourite….daylight back to the third placed horse. That win for the Nicholls runner gave him more pleasure than actually having the winner, because ACT OF INNOCENCE was one of 18 horses he lost during the summer.

Only horses aged five or six have ever won this, despite it being open to horses aged 4+ and, as all taking part are aged five, or six, and all eight carrying 11st 5lb, we can only trust to the market to points us towards the winner.

The last two favourites have gone in trading odds on, and they were also aged six.

Only two winners have returned odds bigger than 4/1 so right now I’m thinking dutch:

  • ACT OF INNOCENCE
  • TAURUS BAY
  • HEADS UP

That gives me a profit of 30% and the bet has been placed.

I’m a fan of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper form and HEADS UP ran second in the 2025 renewal and had horses like EL CAIROS and IDAHO SUN behind him and the collateral form of that Bumper is working out superbly well, the seventh placed horse last season winning on his hurdling debut back in November, then finishing runner up to I’LL SORT THAT in the Ballymore Novices’ at Naas a couple of weeks ago.

I’ll put up HEADS UP as my selection 20/80.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – HEADS UP