The start of my most manic week of the entire year. Nothing creates a buzz like Cheltenham and the panic setting in from members who have not yet received my work….always goes out early evening, the day before racing….has made me smile today. I get it. I’m every bit as much buzzing.
The weather? Who knows what’s coming but I’m not going to let it worry me. I do not consider ground conditions when Profiling, so it’ll be what it’ll be.
I have now started work on Day 2 plus I’m looking at tomorrow’s meeting at Sedgefield and everything will be on the website by 11-30am and out to you in a Newsletter.
Best of luck tomorrow….let’s hope everyone gets home safe and sound and that we do see a superstar in CONSTITUTION HILL.

DAY 1

SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE

In a recent Newsletter I mentioned how much “easier” it is to find the winners of the Graded races….hopefully the trend continues and we don’t get a host of 25/1 winners this week, blowing all stats out of the water.
Trainers soon catch on to what a race requires and act accordingly.
I’m not going to change a thing regarding Profiling because as you have heard in Podcasts, it works every weekend…everything happens for a reason. My criteria “sequence” will not be changing either so we start age groupings.
Since 2003 only two winners have been older than six years of age and, as I say, every trainer has a handle on this and all 14 going to post are “correctly” aged. It is currently 10 to the 6-y-o’s – 8 to the five year old’s.
Next, in a handicap, would come weight ranges but obviously they all carry 11st 7lb so we move on to market position.
In the last 10 years only one winner sat outside the front three on the tissue, when the tapes went up. That then are the horses that constitute my first shortlist:
• FACILE VEGA
• MARINE NATIONALE
• IL ETAIT TEMPS
At current Betfair odds a profit to a dutch = 61% and I’d take that any day of the week but we need one to post up as a Profile selection.
Willie Mullins trains both FACILE VEGA and IL ETAIT TEMPS.
Last time out the last named won the Tattersalls Ireland Novices’, with FACILE VEGA going off the 4/9 favourite but finishing last of the five that completed, beaten 20 lengths.
The significance of that win is that Mullins has used it as his primary trial for the Supreme. Of his five previous winners of that race in Ireland, that have come to Cheltenham for this race, he has won it with four of them.
FACILE VEGA still retains favouritism, with IL ETAIT TEMPS around 6/1 but he will have to overcome one heck of a stat to win tomorrow.. Only three of the last 26 winners of this race arrived having been beaten last time out.
What about MARINE NATIONALE? Unbeaten in all four starts, two over hurdles but, officially, he’s 5lb shy of the Mullins pair and the horse he beat a head at Fairyhouse, IRISH POINT, in December was beaten 16 lengths by IL ETAIT TEMPS at Leopardstown.
He has a bit to find, as his rating suggests.
For me one of the Mullins pair wins it and if asked to take 2/1 FACILE VEGA, or 6/1 IL ETAIT TEMPS, given the stats and trends discussed, I would have to go 20/80 IL ETAIT TEMPS.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION

IL ETAIT TEMPS – 20/80
THE CHELTENHAM ROSE BOWL

With bonus points up for grabs for winners priced 20/1 or bigger, a few layers might be tempted to go pot hunting but I would play safe and select one of the three mentioned.
HIGH DEFINITION is the best flat horse to go hurdling for a long time. Once favourite to win the Epsom Derby he won on debut over obstacles but unseated his rider behind the profile selection last time out. Unless they have improved his jumping, he’ll have his work cut out, no matter how much speed he has.
The rest of this field has to improve nearly a stone or more to win….could happen but if it does, I will lose money here.
ARKLE TROPHY

In October 2021 I advised my subscribed members to get on JONBON here. He was up around 16/1 back then….top price 13/8 now and those that got on with Paddy Power have already been paid out, some winning over £1k having backed it every month with PP at all prices down.
Obviously a publicity stunt but those members will not care a jot. They were weighed in before anyone knew how good he is.
Eight winning favourites in the last 11 running’s only two outside the front three on the tissue in the last 10 seasons
Six and seven year old’s have won nine of the last 10 of these and that means a first shortlist of;
• BALLYBREEZE
• DYSART DYNAMO
• EL FABIOLO
• HA D’OR
• HOLLOW GAMES
• JONBON
They all carry 11st 7lb so again, we move swiftly on to market position.
As mentioned already, you need to be front three on the tissue as a minimum:
• EL FABIOLO
• JONBON
• DYSART DYNAMO
Two trained by Mullins, JONBON by Henderson.
Trainers stats make for very interesting reading here….Mullins has sent 12 for this race in the last decade, won it with four, placed with two others. Henderson has sent seven for it in that same period of time, won with three, placed with another pair.
No other trainer represented tomorrow has produced anything. I’m extremely confident the winner has already been named above.
The last horse to win this not having won last time out was FORPADYTHPLASTERER in 2009. Only three winners in the last 20 years have managed it.
On that basis we lose DYSART DYNAMO, who finished fourth last time out…nothing in the last 20 years had finished worse than third (CONTRABAND 2005).
Experience is vital in a race like this and it’s a fact that 21 of the last 28 winners arrived having had at least three runs over fences and with EL FABIOLO only having seen fences twice in public, with JONBON having the required minimum of three, the Henderson horse simply has to be the selection.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION

JONBON

THE CHELTENHAM ROSE BOWL

I was always reminded of SPRINTER SACRE when I first saw JONBON and whilst he has a heck of a long way to go before he reaches that level, I’m hoping he does.
One of JONBON / EL FABIOLO wins this races barring accidents, and both turning up and delivering their best form. JONBON was never a hurdler but despite that was only ever beaten once and that was by the most likely winner of this seasons Champion Hurdle. He beat EL FABIOLO over hurdles at Aintree, and whilst both have improved for fences, I have been more impressed by JONBON as a jumper of a fence so far.
You take your pick!

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE

All season long I have been moaning about novices in full blown handicaps but in truth, I could have started moaning about them ages ago.
Last season this race saw novices finish 1, 2, 3, 4, 5….and a trio of them were running from out of the handicap!
This used to be a graveyard for novices and it was close to 40 years before one won in 2004. Since then, they’ve won seven of the last 19 running’s of this race.
Who remembers 2015, the year I put up THE DRUIDS NEPHEW as THE ONE? He belted in @ 8/1 having been double figure prices when advised and I had lots of proposals of marriage from grown men, who should know better!
I’ll profile in my usual way and we’ll see what pops up.
Age groupings first of all and with 13 of the last 20 winners aged either seven or eight, horses so aged will make up my first shortlist:
• FANION D’ESTRUVAL
• THE BIG BREAKAWAY
• THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
• FASTORSLOW
• TEA CLIPPER
• INTO OVERDRIVE
• KARL PHILLIPE
• MONBEG GENIUS
• OSCAR ELITE
• LASKALIN
• HARPER’S BROOK
• FANTASTIKAS
That has got us down to 12 of the 23 going racing tomorrow.
Weight ranges next. Four of the last five winners all carried less that 11st, and in fact, 14 of the last 20 winners, too so I’m removing any from that list above that carries 11st, or more:
• MONBEG GENIUS
• OSCAR ELITE
• LASKALIN
• HARPER’S BROOK
• FANTASTIKAS
Down to five so now we check that quintet’s market position, to see if clues can be gleaned and whilst we have had winners of this trading 28/1 (two in the last 10 years), the winner has been located in the front five on the tissue at the off, in eight of the last nine years so if any of the last five are, they get to go to the ball:
• MONBEG GENIUS
• OSCAR ELITE
They are currently joint fifth favourite on 10/1 so I’d go for a dutch here.
Previous course and especially Festival form would appear to be a major plus when it comes to winning this race as 12 of the last 25 winners had finished in the first four, at a previous Festival. Six of those 12 winners did so after placing 12 months earlier.
OSCAR ELITE ran third in this race @ 22/1, ridden by Harry Cobden, who takes the ride again tomorrow. Cobden rode him recently to win a little three runner race at Ascot, winning very easily.
This horse also ran second to VANILLIER @ 40/1, when runner up in the Albert Bartlett and everything would seem to point to another big run tomorrow afternoon….my 20/80.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION

OSCAR ELITE – 20/80
THE CHELTENHAM ROSE BOWL

Make a note of novices, and do not be afraid to select horses running from out of the handicap trading 14/1 or shorter.

CHAMPION HURDLE

Anything in here good enough to beat CONSITUTION HILL?
On official ratings nothing will get anywhere near him, his nearest opponent on the tissue is fully 10lb inferior to him…only stats can get him beaten!
He won last season’s Supreme Novices’ in a canter but, if I tell you that no horse has won that race and then returned 12 months later to win a Champion Hurdle, since BULA did it in 1971?
The great shame here is that we only have seven runners and so betting e.w. is pointless. STATE MAN is clearly the best of the Irish trained, 7lb better than the third favourite, VAUBAN….but STATE MAN only trades 10/3.
Favourites have an outstanding record in this race, winning the last three and four of the last five. Would you take 1/3 knowing that BULA stat? Would you take 1/3 regardless?
A no bet race for me personally. I’ll just be happy watching and seeing if CONSTITUTION HILL can pass the official mark of NIGHT NURSE, to become (officially), the greatest hurdler of all time.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION

CONSTITUTION HILL
THE CHELTENHAM ROSE BOWL

An easy 10 points….if he wins and breaks some monster stats that are against him.
MARES HURDLE

History tells us that is we look to punt horses older than seven, we are usually binning out betting slip shortly after the winner has passed the post.
Six of the last eight winners were aged seven and that’s the only period I am interested in because prior to that, QUEVEGA had won it as a 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 year old so prior to 2009, when the race was only one year old, stats ain’t worth a carrot. So, a list of seven year olds it is then….:
• BRANDY LOVE
• ECHOES IN RAIN
• LOVE ENVOI
Only three of the primary age grouping stand their ground and two are trained by Willie Mullins, the other by Harry Fry, who we would love to see winning this!
They all carry 11st 5lb so to market we go and it is interesting to note we have had no winning favourite in this since 2015 plus, three of the last five winners returned SP’s of 18/1, 11/1, 10/1.
Only two winners in the last 10 years have sat outside the front three on the tissue though and of that trio only BRANDY LOVE qualifies for selection.
He saddles three of the 10 runners currently going to post and is the mount of the stables No.1 jockey so at 6/1, I’m happy with a 20/80 and a profit if the horse places.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION

BRANDY LOVE – 20/80
THE CHELTENHAM ROSE BOWL

Do not be surprised if we get another weird and wonderful result.
BOODLES JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE

Last year I made sure you knew of a word I had received regarding BRAZIL, who won at 10/1. I’ve had nothing as yet from the lads over there but if anything comes, I’ll let you know.
Now, this is likely to be a race where someone gets bonus points for a winner returning 20/1 or bigger. I say this in certain profiled races every year but, if I find you the winner of this, you owe me a bottle of Edradour.
The last 10 winners have returned 25/1, 33/1, 25/1, 13/2, 33/1, 33/1, 7/2, 15/2, 80/1 and 10/1. Tom Cruise would turn this mission down.
There have only been 18 previous running of this race and the first two winners returned 20/1 & 40/1. Prior to that 25/1 winner mentioned as first in that list above, and after those first two winners, you had three returning 14/1, 11/ and 40/1….so you know what you are getting yourself into, betting here.
Age groups….useless as all are four year olds.
Weight ranges? Only one winner in the last nine years has carried less that 11st
Market position? Don’t make me laugh….well, what I am seeing is the following. Although the winners have been needles in haystacks over the years, in the last seven years four have been front four on the tissue. Whilst winning favourites are as rare as rocking horse manure the last seven favourites has seen five finishing 2, 3, 1, 2, 2….do we have a turning worm? Two of them pulled up.
Let’s kick off with a shortlist of horses carrying 11st or more:
• MCTIGUE
• TEKAO
• PERSEUS WAY
• SIR ALLEN
The current tissue favourite is TEKAO, and SIR ALLEN trades fourth favourite. MCTIGUE is 40/1 and PERSEUS WAY 14/1.
The Irish have trained the last five winners of this and that pair at the front of the market are Irish trained, Mullins and Andrew Slattery respectively.
If I’m happy to say the worm is turning….and three of the last four winners returned 10/1 or shorter, then I Dutch that pair.
You want one for a 20/80 though, don’t you and for that I’m going back to weight ranges and getting all pedantic. Four of the last six winners carried in excess of 11st 5lb and of that pair only TEKAO qualifies so, he’s “it”!
Want a funky stat, that makes me happy with my Dutch?
Three of the last four winners of this race won a race at Naas in mid-February. The winner of that race this season was (drum roll please!)….SIR ALLEN…..
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION

TEKAO – 20/80
THE CHELTENHAM ROSE BOWL

It’s either going to be easy, or impossible. You have fewer selections to work with if you think “easier” but looking back at some of those huge priced winners, they have been trained by the trainers at the very top of their games….Elliott….25/1, 40/1….Nicholls 25/1….Noel Meade 80/1 so don’t be afraid to get that lucky pin out, draw up a short list of horses at huge prices, trained by high profile trainers, and jabbing that page.

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

This race has been so good to us in recent seasons as THE ONE has won it in 2021 and 2022….I wanted to work this race very early for you and post THE ONE up again but even as long ago as October, the prices on offer were daft.
We have 10 going to post.
The last winning favourite was BACK IN FOCUS, in 2013….so nobody can ever accuse me of going with the obvious, when selecting “THE ONE”
Let’s go with the stats flow and age groupings. Five of the last 10 winners were seven year olds….as were four of the last six, and the last two.
The seven year old’s standing their ground are:
• CHEMICAL ENERGY
• COOVALLA
• GAILLARD DU MESNIL
• MAHLER MISSION
• MINELLA CROONER
They all carry 11st 6lb, with the exception of the mare BELLATRIXSA but she’s 100/1 and about as expected as snow in Hades.
Market position then….seven of the last 10 winners were front four on the tissue at the off so from that first shortlist I’ll extract:
• CHEMICAL ENERGY
• GAILLARD DU MESNIL
• MAHLER MISSION
• MINELLA CROONER
All Irish trained as seven of the last 10 came from across the sea, that’s a stat I’m hanging my hat on.
Five of the last last 10 winners were ridden by either Jamie Codd, or Patrick Mullins and they are aboard:
• CHEMICAL ENERGY
• GAILLARD DU MESNIL
The trainers of that pair, Elliott and Mullins respectively, have saddled six of the last 10 winners and if you want to be honest, GALVIN was also trained by Elliott but because of his ban, ran in Ian Ferguson’s name.
I’ve already said the favourite has a poor record in this and right now that GAILLARD DU MESNIL, who is actually slight odds on tomorrow, whereas CHEMICAL ENERGY is 7/1. A Dutch produces profit.
Both were beaten last time out but so were 13 of the last 20 winners and if stats mean anything, one of them wins this race but the favourites stat puts me right off the Mullins runner and I would have to suggest a 20/80 the Elliott horse.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION

CHEMICAL ENERGY – 20/80