1-10 – 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Sue Ryder Leckhampton Court Hospice Maiden Hurdle (Novices’ Championship Hurdle Qualifier) (GBB) (Class 2) (4yo+)

Only one previous running of this race so it cannot be Profiled. Trust to the OMMS!

OMMS

The majority of the markets here today are impossible to follow due to the volume of non-runners. We do have one here though….

17/11/24 (8-25AM) (10-45AM)

  • (OMM) 1-10 – ACE OF SPADES – 7/4 > 5/6 > E > 10/11
  • (MMM) 1-10 – UNLEASH THE BEAST – 40/1 > 20/1

1-45 – 2m4f (2m4f44y) (Old) mallardjewellers.com Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+)

We have had a couple of seven year olds winning this but generally ypou want to be with a five or six year old. they have won six of the last seven running’s of this so my first shortlist reads:

  • PRIMOZ
  • PEAKY BOY
  • THE OTHER MOZZIE
  • WESTERNINTHEPARK 
  • BOB BOB RICARD
  • LEADER IN THE PARK

You definitely need to carrying weight. Nine of the last 10 winners carried 11st 2lb or more so those not doing so here get the “shepherds”:

  • PRIMOZ
  • PEAKY BOY
  • THE OTHER MOZZIE
  • WESTERNINTHEPARK

I’m sorry to see LEADER IN THE PARK go as I know Ben Pauling thinks he’s the real deal and, that you can write off his hurdling season as he was running all the time with an injury. But it is what it is….gone.

Down to four and now I’m working with the markets and of the last 10 winners, only one was outside the front two on the tissue so as I have already binned the second favourite, LEADER IN THE PARK, we have to work with the favourite, PEAKY BOY.

Very lightly traced under rules, he arrives having won 2-2 over hurdles last term. 

After cruising up in his sole PTP race, he was sent to Nicky Henderson after they coughed up £240,000 for him at the Tatts November sale 2022. This was always going to be his game being by Kayf Tara and I’m looking forward to seeing if he can cut the mustard.

 

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION – PEAKY BOY

 

OMMS

17/11/24 (10-47AM)

  • 🔥 – PEAKY BOY – 5/2 > 15/8 > 7/4
  • PRIMOZ – 7/2 > 3/1

2-20 – 2m (1m7f199y) (Old) Three Counties Christmas Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-150)

Only four going to post so we’ll not be here long chatting about this one.

Two of the four are nine year olds and no horse of that age has won this in the last decade. Unsurprisingly, they are the two trading longest 8/1 & 10/1…..front two, MATATA 13/8, and CALICO 15/8.

So one of that pair is winning.

All I can do is tell you that Dan Skelton has sent seven for this previously, had just two place. MATATA is trained by Nigel twiston-Davies, and this will be his first runner in it this decade. 

CALICO won last time out, and no winner in the last decade has won this after winning last time they race so I’m going to have to run with MATATA….hardly Profiling but that’s all we have.

 

ITSCHELTENHAM PROFILE SELECTION – MATATA

OMMS

17/11/24

  • MATATA – 13/8 > 5/4

2-55 – 3m3½f (Old) Holland Cooper Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

I am not a fan of races run over this kind of trip and I do not bother producing Ratings for races run in excess of 3 miles 2 furlongs. Only four of these have winning form over thios far, the other eight have never attempted it.

I’ll profile it and we’ll see what happens tomorrow.

Age groupings….the last seven winners have been aged 10, 8, 9, 8, 11, 7, 6….we had three x 7-y-o’s in succession before that run started but right now this would have me scratching my head. I cannot use age groupings.

Weight ranges? the last five winners, and eight of thre last 10, all carried more than 11st but I have no upper limit as teo of the last three winners carried 11st 12lb and 12st….only three qualify:

  • NASSALAM
  • DOES HE KNOW
  • MONBEG GENIUS

Market position any help? Six of the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue but we’ve only seen one winning favourite. 

DOES HE KNOW trade favourite right now, the other two are huge prices. All I can do is put that one up as a 20/80….probably just a place only punt.

 

ITSCHELTENHAM PROFILE SELECTION – DOES HE KNOW – 20/80

OMMS

17/11/24 (8-25AM) (10-52AM)

  • 🔥 (OMM) 2-55 – HYMAC – 11/2 > 10/3 > 3/1
  • (OMM) 2-55 – DOES HE KNOW – 9/1 > 4/1 > 5/1
  • (MMM) 2-55 – ABUFFALOSOLDIER – 6/1 > 9/2
  • (MMM) 2-55 – MANOTHEPEOPLE – 9/1 > 7/1

3-30 – 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

The best race of the afternoon.

However, not a race for the favourite in the last 10 years, none has won, only three have placed, five out with the washing, one a faller.

We want to be working primarily with five year olds. That rules out the horse Fegal O’Brien suggests is the best handicapped horse either side of the irish Sea….DYSART ENOS….who now trades clear favourite….that’s two balls and chains…the other being he’s a six year old. Only one of that age grouping has won in the last 10 years, from 47 that have tried.

Let’s set up the five year olds shortlist:

  • UNDER CONTROL
  • BE AWARE
  • CRACKING RHAPSODY
  • FIERCELY PROUD
  • JACOVEC CAVERN
  • TINTINTIN

Weight ranges now and no more than 11st….lower weight….I’m thinking we go with 10st 8lb so a very narrow banding. It would have found you six of the last nine winners though. The problem is, that brings in every one in the list and the only horse fitting from a weight perspective is the Emmet Mullins trained TOLL STONE …. a four year old and the only one of that age group that has pulled it off was back in 2015….the horse is also drifting like a barge, 14/1 > 20/1.

Speaking of prices, I’m looking at the market next and you’d not want to be working with the front two on the tissue….3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th fit though seven of the last 10 winners!

  • UNDER CONTROL
  • BE AWARE

The last three winners arrived making seasonal debut and if that applies here, our Profiling selection is BE AWARE. Yet to finish out of the first two in four starts over hurdles, he’s definitely running for the right yard….Skelton is on fire right now!

 

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION – BE AWARE

OMMS

17/11/24 (10-53AM)

  • BE AWARE – 12/1 > 7/1
  • ROYAL WAY – 33/1 > 16/1

4-00 – 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Junior Jumpers Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4-5yo)

Just six head to post, age and weight ranges of no use at all, and all I can actually say is the winner will be front three on the tissue.

That would have secured seven winning dutch plays in the last 10 years:

  • MINELLA HOLLOW
  • FORTUNE DE MER
  • BLOCK ROCKIN BEATS

The first named is an Irish challenger, who arrives 2-2 and we have had no winning ☠️ in the last 10 years so I’d drop the favourite….who will now win by 20 lengths.

FORTUNE DE MER runs for the Skeltons but has yet to visit the winners enclosure. That’s important because the last three winners of this had done that, and five of the last 10 so, I’m left with the Oliver Signy trained BLOCK ROCKIN BEATS. He has won his last two, arrives a course and distance winner….when he beat FORTUNE DE MER into second place….so why is he longer on the tissue? It could be that he’s from an unfashionable yard?

I’ll have to put him up but confident? Nah

 

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION – BLOCK ROCKIN BEATS – 20/80

OMMS

17/11/24 (10-55AM)

  • MINELLA HOLLOW – 11/8 > E