I first started this aspect of my Cheltenham work when we had a relatively level playing field and British based horses were as competitive as the Irish trained runners.
I would wait until around two weeks before a Festival, before sending out the name of a horse I believed would help my members pay for their entire years betting/membership.
How things have changed!
The Irish started dominating the Cheltenham Festival, home trained horses effectively now ruled out for selection as THE ONE, and I had to start looking for THE ONE a full year before it would run at the next Cheltenham Festival.
The shortlist would come together and once I had that down, I could then start to look at which races they would most likely target next year. I could look at the ante-post markets and quickly ascertain which horse was going to be called up for a race at the following years Festival.
GALVIN….16/1….STATTLER @ 12/1….like shelling peas they were. Obvious target for both was the National Hunt Chase, trained by the two blokes dominating the four days of racing, Mullins and Elliott, e.w. bets to nothing, even six months ahead of the race I felt they would win.
Again, how things have changed!
Not that I don’t have to still look to Irish trained horses, and those trained by Mullins or Elliott….but you try getting a double figure price for one 12 months ahead of time. Impossible.
After FACT OR FILE had been beaten in this years Bumper I went looking at the prices for the Ballymore, as he looked that type to me. He was 6/1 favourite. Madness. Who is going to bet a horse at 6/1, for a race a year down the line?
Our problem is, anything even half decent, trained by Mullins or Elliott, is going to be priced up so nobody wants to have a bet. They have so many horses that they could aim at several races, over several different trips, that it is impossible to use their horses now for “THE ONE”.
This year I have kept it “Irish” but looked to the third best over there right now for THE ONE and even that horse, when selected, was barely a double figure price. He raced recently, came home second to a Mullins trained horse….and was cut by four points for the race I have suggested he will win (hopefully!).
Ahead of him in the market for the race I selected, are two Mullins trained horses, and both may well be going for alternative races….and if they do, we’ll have the favourite running for us in March.
