Cheltenham 1-15

2m4f (2m4f44y) Epic Value At William Hill Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Gbb Race) (Class 3) (4yo+)

This is just the fourth running of this race and so Profiling is not possible.

I will make sure I keep on top of the markets for you and we’ll decipher those clues!

MARKET MOVERS

UPDATE 7-05PM

  • (EMM) 1-10 – LORD OF THUNDER – 12/1 > 6/1
  • (EMM) 1-10 – MARV MICHAEL – 12/1 > 11/2
  • (EMM) 1-10 – WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT – 14/1 > 8/1

UPDATE 9-55AM

  • 🔥 (EMM) 1-10 – LORD OF THUNDER – 12/1 > 6/1 > 5/1F
  • (EMM) 1-10 – MARV MICHAEL – 12/1 > 11/2 > 6/1 > 11/2
  • (EMM) 1-10 – WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT – 14/1 > 8/1 (SOLID)
  • (MMM) 1-10 – BOB BOB RICARD – 10/1 > 13/2

Cheltenham 1-45

3m (2m7f208y) William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Novices’ Hurdle (Gbb Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)

Just five going to post and another race totally dominated by the Irish lads, the first four on the tissue all coming from the Emerald Isle.

It is nigh on impossible to Profile a five runner race but from what I see we are looking for a five or six year old, trading front two on the tissue (seven of the last 10 winners were, three were third favourite!), and so I’m with one of MILLFORCE or INTENSE APPROACH.

The first is trained by Gavin Cromwell, who has saddled one for this previously and saw it place.

John McConnell trains INTENSE APPROACH and he has sent for for this, winning with two….in 2020 and 2021.

Willie Mullins sends a 7-y-o to try and win it, FINE MARGIN the current third favourite, and only six of that age group has tried to take this before, one succeeding, two placing.

Since this market opened, everything has eased but because I have to suggest something, I’ll go with John McConnell’s runner but only because he has trained the winner previously, and it’s front two on the tissue.

We shall see what the market suggests later this evening….check back around 7-30pm.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION: INTENSE APPROACH

MARKET MOVERS

UPDATE 7-05PM

  • (EMM) 1-45 – MILLFORCE – 4/1 > 9/4

UPDATE 9-55AM

  • (EMM) 1-45 – MILLFORCE – 4/1 > 9/4 > 15/8 > 2/1
  • (MMM) 1-45 – INTENSE APPROACH – 5/2 > 2/1

Cheltenham 2-20

3m1f Epic Jumps Season At William Hill Handicap Chase (Gbb Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)

I love races like this. We have a 14 runner handicap, ripe for some proper Profiling and great for tomorrow’s Ratings. If we have a Profile selection in the shortlist that is sitting top three on my numbers, we might just have a bet.

Here we see the last 10 winners have been aged seven (4), eight (3), and nine (3), so those in that age range make up my first shortlist:

  • DOES HE KNOW
  • VANILLIER
  • LE MILOS
  • KINONDO KWETU
  • SENIOR CHIEF
  • CHASING FIRE
  • CAPTAIN MORGS
  • KANSAS CITY STAR
  • UNANSWERED PRAYERS
  • THE SHORT GO

On to those weight ranges and whilst they are all over the place, I do see that only three of the last 10 winners managed to pull this off carrying more than 10st 13lb so those carting under 11st step forward please:

  • KANSAS CITY STAR
  • UNANSWERED PRAYERS
  • THE SHORT GO

Swiftly down to three and now to see if any fits the market history.

I would not want to be with the favourite as none has won this in the last 10 years, but sitting front four helps….six of those 10 winners were:

Unfortunately none is close….two @ 16/1, THE SHORT GO 20/1.

If I were to ignore the weight ranges, then the Henry De Bromhead trained SENIOR CHIEF fits like a glove, a seven year old sitting second favourite, and he took this race last year with WHACKER CLAN.

He also trains THE SHORT GO….it’s a Rubik Cube moment I’m afraid and I’ll await instructions from the markets!

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION: NONE

MARKET MOVERS

UPDATE 7-05PM

  • (EMM) 2-20 – BROADWAY BOY – 5/1 > 11/4
  • (EMM) 2-20 – SOME SCOPE – 5/1 > 11/4
  • (EMM) 2-20 – SENIOR CHIEF – 10/1 > 6/1

UPDATE 9-55AM

  • (EMM) 2-20 – BROADWAY BOY – 5/1 > 11/4 > 3/1
  • (EMM) 2-20 – SOME SCOPE – 5/1 > 11/4 > 5/1 > 11/2
  • (EMM) 2-20 – SENIOR CHIEF – 10/1 > 6/1 > 7/1
  • (MMM) 2-20 – CHASING FIRE – 12/1 > 15/2

Cheltenham 2-55

3m (2m7f208y) Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Gbb Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)

Whatever wins this will not be winning the final in March….this is simply about qualifying. Do not expect me to find this winner using profiling as seven of the last 10 winners returned SP’s of 10/1, 11/1, 11,1, 16/1, 12/1, 20/1 and it genuinely is an enigma wrapped up in a riddle.

In the last 10 years we’ve seen winners aged 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12….an incredibly wide spread but….horses aged five of six have won five of the last eight running’s and we’ll trust the first shortlist to them:

  • THE WALLPARK
  • AL GASPERO
  • ZAIN NIGHTS
  • IDEM
  • COMO PARK

Five qualifiers and as you’ve already spotted, it’s quite possible the winners has been left behind.

There of that quintet are Irish trained but they have only won one of the last 10 running’s of this and that is because of what I said earlier….if you win this, you leave the Festival final behind so, qualification is all that matters. At least, that was the case before they changed the qualification rules….well find out together if that makes a difference.

Weight ranges next and again, the spread is ridiculous. Everything from 9st 13lb – 11st 12lb but I’ll go with those carrying between 10st 6lb and 10st 13lb simply because that is the winning most range, with four of the last 10 winners in that banding.

  • AL GASPERO
  • ZAIN NIGHTS

Two five year olds make my final shortlist both winners last time out.

The first named is Irish trained and if I’m still correct that this is simply about a finishing position that gets them “in” come March then my selection has to be ZAIN NIGHTS.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION: ZAIN NIGHTS

MARKET MOVERS

  • THE WALLPARK – 8/1 > 4/1 > 9/2
  • ZAIN NIGHTS – 8/1 > 9/2
  • AL GASPERO – 14/1 > 7/1
  • IDEM – 16/1 > 10/1

UPDATE 7-10PM

  • (EMM) 2-55 – ZAIN NIGHTS – 8/1 > 9/2
  • (EMM) 2-55 – AL GASPARO – 14/1 > 7/1
  • (EMM) 2-55 – IDEM – 16/1 > 10/1

UPDATE 9-55AM 

  • 🔥 (EMM) 2-55 – ZAIN NIGHTS – 8/1 > 9/2 > 4/1F
  • (EMM) 2-55 – AL GASPARO – 14/1 > 7/1 > 8/1
  • 🔥(EMM) 2-55 – IDEM – 16/1 > 10/1 > 8/1 (SOLID)

Cheltenham 3-30

2m½f (2m87y) Masterson Holdings Hurdle (Gbb Race) (Class 2) (4yo)

Eight four year olds going to war here and with weight ranges also null it’s just the market than can guide us here.

the last 10 running’s have gone to horses trading front three on the tissue but, just one winning favourite. Five winners returned second favourite, four went off third favourite so I’m looking for that pair, leaving the favourite alone….the very short priced BOTTLER’SECRET who has to give 4lb and more to everything else, is left behind. I should tell you his trainer, Gavin Cromwell is 4-9 in such races at Cheltenham….but this is his first runner in this race.

So….:

  • DODGER LONG
  • GIVEMEFIVE

Both race off 11st, the same weight as carried by last years winner.

how to split them? Official ratings make GIVEMEFIVE 2lb the better horse and whilst he makes seasonal debut of obstacles tomorrow, he was given a pipeopener on the flat 29 days ago running home second and going off favourite at Haydock.

I’ll assume they went there to make sure they came here rust free and make him my Profile selection.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION: GIVEMEFIVE

MARKET MOVERS

  • DODGER LONG – 7/1 > 10/3
  • HASTEN SLOWLY – 33/1 > 16/1

UPDATE 9-50AM

  • (EMM) 3-30 – DODGER LONG – 7/1 > 10/3 > 13/2
  • (MMM) 3-30 – HASTEN SLOWLY – 33/1 > 16/1 > 12/1

Cheltenham 4-05

3m½f (3m110y) William Hill Lengthen Your Odds Novices’ Chase (Gbb Race) (Class 2) (5yo+)

The mighty GALVIN won this in 2020….a friend of those that follow THE ONE!

Just six going to post so we won’t be here long.

Eight of the last 10 winners were aged six or seven….four wins apiece. My qualifiers then are:

  • HYLAND
  • MOON D’ORANGE
  • TRANSMISSION

Weight ranges have no place in profiling here but I will say that I want horses carrying 11st 7lb or more on board. I only want horses trading front three on the tissue as all bar two of the last 10 winners did so….and the only qualifier is HYLAND, who won the Pertemps qualifier on this card last year.

I’m not keen on punting Henderson trained horses right now but they will start winning eventually….hopefully this is one that does the business for him.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION: HYLAND

MARKET MOVERS

NO EMMS

NO OMMS

Cheltenham 4-40

2m½f (2m87y) Junior Jumpers Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (Gbb Race) (Class 2) (4-5yo)

Bumpers….races were most definitely the markets will guide us because whilst we know a horse aged four or five will win it, they are all aged four, or five.

Weight ranges….no more than 11st 6lb….eight of the last 10 winners were covered there….and no less than 11st, only one of the last 10 winners in that range.

The market says most definitely front four on the tissue but, that is no help whatsoever right now because who knows how the market will shap[e up tomorrow morning.

Right now my eyes are drawn towards JAGER TIME. Trained by Fergal O’Brien, who has saddled three of the last seven winners of this race.

I’m going to suggest we hold our water here until I can update the Market Movers at around 11-00am….sooner if something happens.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION: ?

MARKET MOVERS

NO EMMS

NO OMMS