12-35 – JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race)
Won last year by BURDETT ROAD who then went short for the Triumph Hurdle itself.
That winner was trained by James Owen who this year saddles another he has got off the flat, EAST INDIA DOCK, who arrives having raced once over hurdles, winning easily @ 1/2.
All 3-y-o’s and weight ranges make not a hill of beans difference so our firt port of call has to be the markets.
Eight of the last 10 winners were front two on the tissue and in the last decade we’ve had just one winner return an SP bigger than 9/2. The last 10 winners also arrived having won last time out and so our winner is one of:
- EAST INDIA DOCK
- PRAIRIE ANGEL
- MY NOBLE LORD
PRAIRIE ANGEL is a filly, and we’ve had just one of those winning this in the last 10 running’s, APPLES SHAKIRA, in 2017 so I have to drop her on that stat alone….down to a pair then:
- EAST INDIA DOCK
- MY NOBLE LORD
I can dutch that pair to make a profit.
MY NOBLE LORD comes from the same yard that provided James Owen with last years winner, Michael Bell but unlike BURDETT ROAD, who was seen running at Royal Ascot, MY NOBLE LORD was lowr grade, a full 18lb behind BURDETT ROAD on official flat turf ratings.
MY NOBLE LORD was 83 on the flat, EAST INDIA DOCK rated 6lb higher on 89 and on that basis I will make EAST INDIA DOCK the Profiling selection. It might be MY NOBLE LORD improves way past the favourite but, until he does, he hasn’t.
ITSCHELTENHAM PROFILING SELECTION – EAST INDIA DOCK
OMMS
15/11/24 (3-25pm)
NONE
16/11/24 (6-05AM)
- EAST INDIA DOCK – 5/2 > 15/8
16/11/24 (11-26am)
- 🔥 🔥 (OMM) 12-35 – EAST INDIA DOCK – 5/2 > 15/8 > 11/8
1-10 – Steel Plate & Sections Ltd Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase
OMMS
15/11/24 (1-10)
- COME ON TEDDY – 13/2 > 7/2
- STRICTLYADANCER – 16/1 > 10/1
16/11/24 (6-05AM)
- 🔥 – COME ON TEDDY – 13/2 > 7/2 > 3/1
- STRICTLYADANCER – 16/1 > 10/1 > 11/1
16/11/24
- 🔥 (EMM) 1-10 – COME ON TEDDY – 13/2 > 7/2 > 3/1 (SOLID)
- (EMM) 1-10 – STRICTLYADANCER – 16/1 > 10/1 > 11/1
- (MMM) 1-10 – TRANSMISSION – 5/1 > 10/3
1-45 – Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The November) (GBB)
Really loking forward to this. Eight Novice ‘chasers currently set to go to post but I’m definitely thinking the favourite might yet be pulled out. Twice he has been withdrawn because good ground was considered too quick but all I can do is produce Profiling and we see what happens tomorrow.
We only want a six year old on our minds as they have taken seven of the last nine of these and six of the last seven:
- BALLYMACKIE
- BREIZH RIVER
- L’EAU DU SUD
- PETIT TONNERRE
Weight ranges have no bearing on this one so I’m now checking market positions of those last 10 winners and we have seen a decent spread across the front four on the tissue. Four of the last six winners were actually sitting fourth best at the off. Our qualifiers are:
- L’EAU DU SUD
- PETIT TONNERRE
L’EAU DU SUD is the favourite who should, if he runs to his hurdling Rating win. he was the better horse by 21lb over the smaller obstacles and won a handicap chase at Sratford, which is a proper jumpers track, back in October.
Trained by dan Skelton, who has saddled two for this previously, and won with both, he is by a mile the Profile selection but it’ll be fingers crossed if they let him take his chance on good ground.
ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION – L’EAU DU SUD
OMMS
15/11/24 (4-08PM)
- PETIT TONNERRE – 12/1 > 15/2
16/11/24 (6-08AM)
- PETIT TONNERRE – 12/1 > 15/2 > 8/1
- L’EAU DU SUD – E > 5/6
16/11/24 (11-31am)
- L’EAU DU SUD – E > 5/6
- (MMM) 1-45 – BREIZH RIVER – 20/1 > 12/1
2-20 – 2m4f (2m4f44y) (Old) Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
One of my favourite races of the entire season.
We have 15 handicappers giving it plenty during this 20 furlong race and if your jumping is suspect, you’ll be found out very early.
I’ll not have horses younger than seven or older than nine on my mind. Eight of the last 10 winners and four of the last five fall into that range and out first shortlist comprises:
- PROTEKTORAT
- GA LAW
- GINNY’S DESTINY
- FUGITIV
- JETOILE
- LETS GO CHAMP
- HARTUR D’ARC
- IL RIDOTO
- STRAW FAN JACK
- WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT
That’s a third of the field binned.
Next we’ll look at those weight ranges and I’m thinking minimum weight = 10st 11lb, maximum weight = 11st 7lb and those that qualify are:
- GA LAW
- GINNY’S DESTINY
- FUGITIV
Down to three and now we’ll look to see what the market told us just before the tapes went up.
The last 10 winners sat 6th, 7th, 4th, 0, 4th, 8th, 5th, 4th, 2nd, FAV….the 0 indicates we had a 25/1 boil over, that was outside the front nine in the betting.
I’m thinking we go for a horse sitting front four on the tissue as that nails five of the last eight winners so….:
- GA LAW
- GINNY’S DESTINY
That’s a dutch, right there.
Which wins it?
In the Podcast Sean went with GA LAW but in truth, there is nothing to split them. They are both officially rated 155 and run off 11st 2lb. they are both course and distance winners, they are both aged eight.
Form figures around Cheltenham – GA LAW – 1, 5, 1, P….the P came in last season’s Ryanair, a Grade 1, so we can forgive him that.
GINNY’S DESTINY – 7, 1, 1, 1, 2….loves the place.
GA LAW won this in 2022 and it’s just not a race….or hasn’t been….that sees horses coming back to win for a second time.
This is a below average renewal though and I’m happy one of that pair wins….and will plump for GINNY’S DESTINY.
ITSCHELTENHAM PROFILE SELECTION – GINNY’S DESTINY
OMMS
15/11/24 (4-28PM)
- GINNY’S DESTINY – 3/1 > 5/3
- GA LAW – 12/1 > 6/1
- PROTEKTORAT – 14/1 > 10/1
16/11/24 (6-11AM)
- GINNY’S DESTINY – 3/1 > 5/2
- 🔥 GA LAW – 12/1 > 6/1 > 9/2
- PROTEKTORAT – 14/1 > 10/1
16/11/24
- (EMM) 2-20 – GINNY’S DESTINY – 3/1 > 5/2 > 10/3
- 🔥 (EMM) 2-20 – GA LAW – 12/1 > 6/1 > 9/2
- 🔥 (EMM) 2-20 – PROTEKTORAT – 14/1 > 10/1 > 8/1
- (MMM) 2-20 – IN EXCELSIS DEO – 12/1 > 9/1
2-55 – 3m (2m7f208y) (Old) From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)
Another lovely handicap for me to work with, this time 12 heading to post.
We have a definite bias towards horses aged six, seven and eight here but, that only removes one of the 12 strong field, the 9-y-o PINNACLE PEAK.
The weight ranges are also wide ranging, but since 2017 we have a bias towards horses carrying more than 11st….the last four winners have done so, as have five of those eight. Only one winner has carried more than 11st 7lb so I’m going to bring in a range of 11st 1lb to 11st 7lb:
- CAPTAIN MORGS
- EMAILANDY
- DEEP CAVE
Just a trio of horses make the cut….and moving on to the market I see that six of the last 10 winners, and four of the last six, were sitting front three on the tissue so whilst I’d happily dutch the three, the only qualifier based on market position is EMAILANDY.
We have a very short priced favourite in DOYEN QUEST, who fails the weight range (carries 10st 10lb), and this horse has been well punted today 3/1 > 15/8 so Profiling might prove as useful as a chocolate poker….we shall see,
ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION – EMAILANDY – 20/80
OMMS
15/11/24 (4-52PM)
- DOYEN QUEST – 3/1 > 15/8
- THANKSFORTHEHELP – 14/1 > 7/1
16/11/24 (6-12AM)
- DOYEN QUEST – 3/1 > 15/8
- 🔥 THANKSFORTHEHELP – 14/1 > 7/1 > 7/2
3-30 – 2m5f (Old) Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-140)
Another handicap….I’m being spoiled!
We have a Tony martin gamble going on, HAMSIYANN 5/1 > 3/1 and it could be that off 111 he is chucked in here. In May he ran second to his stable companion, ALPHONSE LE GRANDE, who went on to win the Cesarewitch and the Northumberland Vase. He should arguably, have won at Chester.
Let’s see what Profiling says.
Only horses aged five, or six, make the first cut. Nine of the last 10 winners were in that banding but the only runner that rules out is….HAMSIYYAN, a four year old. Now, they are very under represented as a rule, just 17 have tried to win, one managed it, two more placed so it would be rash to draw a line through them.
I’ll go with weight ranges then and starting with HAMSIYANN, who carries 10st 2lb, I note that only 11 have tried to win off such a weight, one won, two were placed.
Market position suggests front four on the tissue is best and they are:
- HAMSIYANN
- MAJOR FORTUNE
- WYENOT
- CHAMPAGNE TWIST
Four of the last two favourites have won, including the last two….HAMSIYANN is currently that 3/1F.
I could simply suggest he’s the Profile selection but I believe I want a 5-y-o, carrying between 11st+ (seven of the last seven winners did), trading front four and so whilst I fully expect the big gamble to be landed, I’m going to work with WYENOT 20/80
A lovely 7/1 winner for us here in october Alice Stevens has been “jocked off” by Sam Twiston-Davies, who rode this horse to finish third to GOLDEN ACE in a Listed hurdle here in April.
He too has seen support, 7/1 > 11/2 and I’m on 20/80.
ITSCHELTENHAM PROFILE SELECTION – WYENOT – 20/80
OMMS
15/11/24 (5-10PM)
- HAMSIYANN – 5/1 > 3/1
- WYENOT – 7/1 > 11/2
- WONDERFUL EAGLE – 10/1 > 8/1
16/11/24
- 🔥 🔥 HAMSIYANN – 5/1 > 3/1 > 5/2 > 2/1
- WYENOT – 7/1 > 11/2 > 6/1
- 🔥 WONDERFUL EAGLE – 10/1 > 8/1 > 11/2
4-05 – 2m½f (2m87y) Karndean Designflooring Mares’ Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1)(4-5yo)
This winner probably picks itself before I have put pen to paper but we’ll work it anyway.
We had a couple of 16/1 winners in 2018 and 2019 but the pair before returned sp’s of 5/1 & 9/4f, and since that second 16/1 winner 11/2, 16/5, 2/1f, 9/4f and last season a 7/2 winner trained by Willie Mullins.
Seven of the last eight winners were four years olds, and I’d be a fool not to, wouldn’t I!….:
- CRYING LIGHTNING
- HAY MEADOW
- KORINTHIA
- RIVIERA WALK
- SEO LINN
- SETTLE DOWN JILL
- ST IRENE
They all carry 11st 2lb so I move swiftly on to the markets. Eight of the last 12 winners were front two on the tissue and the only qualifier is…surprise, surprise….KORINTHIA. Trained by Willie Mullins, the current 6/4 favourite, it’s 11/2 bar the Mullins runner, who arrives unbeaten in two, winning both on the bridle.
I have no idea how good any of these are. Fergal O’Brien trains the second and third favourites, dan Skelton the fourth favourite and they will have all been priced up on “stables”, as opposed to form. three of the last four winners have been trained by….Mullins, O’Brien, Skelton.
In all likelihood one of them does win this but would it be a stunner if they didn’t? Nope.
ITSCHELTENHAM PROFILE SELECTION – KORINTHIA
OMMS
15/11/24 (6-25PM)
- STRONG RUN – 10/1 > 6/1
16/11/24 (6-20AM)
- STRONG RUN – 10/1 > 6/1
- SEO LINN – 14/1 > 9/1
