12-10 – 2m1f (2m179y) (New) JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Novices’ Championship Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (3yo)

Well, we know a 3-y-o will be winning this…that wasn’t rocket science….and with seven of the last 10 winners carrying 11st to 11st 6lb, that gives a shortlist of:

  • MOUTARDE
  • TOTAL LOOK
  • LAVENDER HILL MOB
  • OCEAN QUEST
  • SMALL FRY

We have had six winning favourites in the last nine years, and eight of those last nine winners were also sitting front three on the tissue so we’ll take that trio forward, if they are in that list above:

  • TOTAL LOOK
  • LAVENDER HILL MOB

I’ve just taken the dutch that pair and will make a 40% profit if it comes good. 

The second named has three things going for him. First, he’s currently trading favourite, and secondly, he’s trained by James Owen, who has saddled six winners from 12 runners in this kind of event, at Cheltenham….and thirdly, he arrives off the back of a defeat, which the last four winners of this race also had on their CV’s.

THE ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION

LAVENDER HILL MOB

OMMS

  • LAVENDER HILL MOB – 2/1 > 7/4 > 5/4
  • TOTAL LOOK – 2/1 > 9/4
  • AMBIENTE AMIGO – 9/2 > 5/1 > 11/2
  • QUANTOCK HILLS – 10/1 > 12/1
  • TERIFERMA – 10/1 > 12/1
  • MOUTARDE – 16/1 > 20/1
  • OCEAN CONQUEST – 25/1
  • SMALL FRY – 33/1 > 40/1

12-40 – 3m1½f (3m1f56y) (New) Josh Wyke Birthday Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+)

A little cracker of a novice Chase and I have been looking forward to seeing PEAKY BOY again. 

Age groupings very much suggest we go with the 6-y-o’s because they have won six of the last 10 renewals, and three of the last five so our first shortlist contains:

  • PEAKY BOY
  • DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE
  • ISAAC DES OBEAUX
  • BEACHCOMBER
  • MOON D’ORANGE
  • LIVIN ON LUCO

I’d not be wanting more than 11st 7lb on my back because only one horse has won this carrying more so….:

  • PEAKY BOY
  • DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE
  • ISAAC DES OBEAUX
  • BEACHCOMBER
  • MOON D’ORANGE
  • LIVIN ON LUCO

They all make that cut.

Market? Not a single winner of this in the 10 years I have worked with, has sat outside the front three on the tissue and we’ve also seen seven winning favourites….we had six in succession and we can now prune that list above:

  • PEAKY BOY
  • DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE

Only two get through and they were the pair I liked before I started putting this together because trainers stats highlights that Kim Bailey (DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE), is 1-1 in this race, whilst Nick Henderson (PEAKY BOY), has sent three for it, and won with one.

For me it has to be PEAKY BOY, and I hope to see him become the seventh winning favourite in the last eight running’s.

THE ITSCHELTENHAM PROFILING.COM SELECTION

PEAKY BOY

OMMS

  • PEAKY BOY – 7/4 > 6/4
  • TRANSMISSION – 6/1 > 9/2
  • DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE – 13/2 > 8/1 (BF)
  • HAITI COULEURS – 7/1 > 8/1
  • HILLCREST – 9/1
  • ISAAC DES OBEAUX – 7/1 > 9/1
  • BEACHCOMBER – 12/1 (BF, H)
  • LIVIN IN LUCO – 14/1
  • MOON D’ORANGE – 20/1 > 25/1

1-13 – 2m4½f (2m4f127y) (New) Quintessentially Mares’ Handicap Chase (Challenger Mares’ Chase Series Qualifier) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-125)

RACE TITLE

RACE TITLE

RACE TITLE

1-40 – 2m4½f (2m4f127y) (New) Nyetimber December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

The race of the day. 

We will start by creating a shortlist of horses aged six, or seven. They have won seven of the last 10 running’s of this race and so our first list contains:

  • LE PATRON
  • IL RIDOTO
  • IN EXCELSIS DEO

Eight year olds dominate this race tomorrow, six of the 11 runners being of that age group….and they have won two of the last three running’s. 

I have what I have thought and I’d be happy dutching the trio….a 400% profit it by some miracle it comes off.

Weight ranges next and in the last decade on ly one winner, FRODON, has carted more than 11st 5lb to victory and it’s also a fact that seven winners out of the 10, have carried less than 11st….and the only one of that trio that would qualify is:

  • IN EXCELSIS DEO

Looking at market positions and I’d suggest anything can win it. No favourite in the last 10 years but three of the winners have sat 9th best!

The Harry Fry trained IN EXCELSIS DEO is currently seventh best on the tissue but not unfenced and hopefully he remembers his win here in April and gives his running.

THE ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION

IN EXCELSIS DEO – 20/80

OMMS SECTION

FIRST SHOW

  • FUGITIF – 6/1 > 11/2 > 9/2 > 5/1
  • 🔥 – MADARA – 5/1 > 6/1 > 7/2
  • GA LAW – 8/1 > 15/2
  • STAGE STAR – 7/1 > 8/1 > 5/1 (BF, W2)
  • GRANDEUR D’AME – 8/1 > 10/1 > 9/1
  • IL RIDOTO – 10/1 > 6/1 > 9/1
  • GEMIRANDE – 12/1 > 9/1 > 11/1
  • IN EXCELSIS DEO – 10/1 > 12/1 > 14/1 > 11/1
  • JAMES DU BERLAIS – 14/1- NR
  • LE PATRON – 14/1 – 16/1 > 8/1
  • PINKERTON – 10/1 > 16/1 – NR
  • GUARD YOUR DREAMS – 25/1 > 20/1 > 14/1 > 18/1
  • SHAKEM UP’ARRY – 20/1 > 25/1 – NR
  • SURE TOUCH – 33/1 > 25/1

2-25 – 2m½f (2m62y) (New) BetMGM Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)

Only six going to post for what should have been a really good Handicap. 

Obviously profiling a six runner handicap is a bit naff really. If I then tell you that horses aged 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 have all won in the last 10 years and that in the last 10 years we’ve seen all manner of weight ranges taking it (three of the last five years 10st, 10st 1lb, 10st 2lb….with the other two 11st 12lb & 11st 2lb, you realise I’m up a creek without a paddle right now.

Market positions suggest you need to be front five on the tissue….I did say trying to Profile a six runner Handicap was daft….and then chuck into the mix that none of the trainers with runners here has managed to win it yet, you should now have a picture of me scratching my head.

I have a seven year old, taking front two on the tissue, that would seem to make sense across the last five years (that “pairing would have won three of those five), and as MASTER CHEWY is also THE PROFF’S NO.1 I will suggest it has a squeak….but it ain’t a profile suggestion….I’ll skip this race for that!

NO PROFILE SELECTION 

OMMS SECTION

FIRST SHOW

  • LIBBERTY HUNTER – 11/4 > 7/2 > 2/1 > 9/4
  • MASTER CHEWY – 7/2 > 5/2
  • BEAU BALKO – 7/2 > 6/1 – NR
  • ISSAR D’AIRY – 6/1 > 9/2 (BF)
  • TEDLEY – 13/2 > 8/1 – NR
  • UNEXPECTED PARTY – 13/2 > 7/1 > 9/1 > 8/1 – NR
  • THIRD TIME LUCKI – 10/1 > 14/1 > 10/1 > 13/2
  • TRIPLE TRADE – 10/1 > 11/1 > 9/1
  • ETALON – 14/1 > 8/1
  • DOYOUKNOWWHATIMEAN – 16/1 > 25/1 – NR
  • HARPER’S BROOK – 25/1 – NR
  • NETYWELL – 33/1 – NR

3-00 – 3m (2m7f213y) (New) Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Registered As The Bristol Novices’ Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Only seven here and it’s annoying given we had 13 set to race two days ago.

I can only suggest we work with five year olds here as they have won eight of the last 10 running’s and the last five.

  • CLONDAW GENERAL
  • WESTERN KNIGHT
  • JET BLUE
  • ABOUTDAMNTIME

The current favourite, the prolific SKYJACK HIJACK, is a 6-y-o and only one of that age has taken this in the last 10 years.

Weight ranges are not applied here so we’ll see if the market suggests anything.

Front three on the tissue is a must….eight of the last 10 winners were and, as we’ve already binned the favourite, we run with:

  • CLONDAW GENERAL
  • WESTERN KNIGHT

Definitely priced for a dutch.

Which wins, if either can stop the favourite’s winning run?

I have nothing better than a coin to toss, to pick between them. 

I’m going to suggest WESTERN KNIGHT. I am doing so only because both wins achieved by Kim Bailey’s CLONDAW GENERAL, have come on soft ground

Now I’ll set up my dutch.

THE ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION

WESTERN KNIGHT

OMMS SECTION

FIRST SHOW

  • SKYJACK HIJACK – 9/4 > 5/2
  • CLONDAW GENERAL – 7/2
  • WESTERN KNIGHT – 9/2
  • ACE OF SPADES – 5/1 > 6/1
  • JET BLUE – 6/1 > 7/1 > 6/1
  • CIRCUIT BREAKER – 10/1 > 12/1
  • EXCELLO – 10/1 > 12/1 (W2)
  • ABOUTDAMNTIME – 14/1 > 16/1
  • HISTRIONIC – 14/1 > 16/1 (W)
  • YELLOW CAR – 20/1 > 25/1 (BF)
  • TIGERBYTHETAIL – 40/1 > 50/1
  • STOP LASS – 100/1
  • DIAGON ALLEY – 100/1 > 200/1

3-35 – 2m4½f (2m4f56y) (New) BetMGM Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)

Another race that has a limited history, just eight previous running’s and so all I can do is what I did earlier (the 1-13pm), and so far it’s horses aged five and six holding sway, but at present, weight bandings are of no help whatsoever.

The market though very much says our winner is front two on the tissue….five of the last six were, anyway!

The front pair right now are aged five – JOYEUSE – and six – TAKE NO CHANCES – and funnily enough, they are also THE PROFF’S top two Rated….so I’ll pop a two horse dutch on but again, not post up a Profiling selection (first one of those here will be 2027!)….hopefully worth waiting for!!

THE ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION

NONE

OMMS SECTION

FIRST SHOW

  • 🔥 – JOYEUSE – 7/2 > 4/1 > 15/8
  • GEORGI GIRL – 7/1 > 6/1 > 13/2
  • WYENOT – 7/1 > 8/1 – NR
  • KATEIRA – 6/1 > 10/1 – NR
  • PRETENDING – 10/1 > 12/1 (BF)
  • MOLTO BENE – 10/1 > 12/1 > 14/1 (W2)
  • SWEET FANTASY – 10/1 > 12/1 > 14/1
  • 🔥 – TAKE NO CHANCES – 10/1 > 12/1 > 11/2
  • WEST BALBOA – 12/1 – NR
  • GREYVAL – 14/1 > 20/1
  • ROYALE MARGAUX – 12/1 >14/1 > 11/1
  • ENDLESS ESCAPE – 14/1 > 16/1 > 12/1
  • LILY DU BERLAIS – 14/1 > 16/1 – NR
  • THE LORD MAID – 16/1 – NR
  • WODHOOH – 14/1 > 16/1 > 12/1
  • BRUCIO – 25/1 – NR
  • MASKED DANCE – 25/1 > 28/1
  • AH WHISHT – 33/1 (W2) – NR
  • HOLLY – 33/1 > 28/1
  • LUNAR DISCOVERY – 33/1 > 40/1
  • MAVIS PIKE – 33/1 – NR
  • OTTIZZINI – 33/1 – NR
  • RING O ROSES – 25/1 > 33/1 – NR
  • THE HEIGHT OF FAME – 33/1 – NR