PROFILING

A race that has me watching every qualifier like a hawk and a few weeks ago I pinged this out to members:

“One to play 20/80 non-runner no bet.

SUPREMELY WEST in the Pertemps Final

Dan Skelton now trains this horse and I’ve not seen many trainers better at preparing a horse for a Cheltenham Festival Handicap.

He got it off Dr Newland, who got the horse after it had won an Irish Bumper in 2022.

In two runs here in Bumpers it won both, at Huntingdon and Exeter, then the good doctor ran the horse 11 times over hurdles, and it was only ever out of the first three once, winning three, finishing runner up five times, and third once.

It has since been moved to Dan Skelton who ran the horse first time in a Cheltenham Pertemps qualifier, at Cheltenham, when it ran 3rd to MA SHANTOU in a 17 runner race. It was beaten just over five lengths and definitely looked an unlucky loser that day.

MA SHANTOU is now just 8/1 to win the Stayers Hurdle rated 144, whilst SUPREMELY WEST has been campaigned to “lose weight”….but just enough to make sure he lines up.

He had to give weight to MA SHANTOU that day as he was officially rated 137, MA SHANTOU 129….now MA SHANTOU is rated 144, SUPREMELY WEST 135.

If they met again in a handicap off the new marks, who wins!?….SUPREMELY WEST is now “officially” 11lb better off for a five length beating, by a horse now just 8/1 for a Grade 1.

Three weeks later he ran the horse in another three mile Cheltenham Handicap off 138 (up 3lb for that first run), and it ran 5th of eight, beaten 24 lengths by KIKIJO, going off the 5/4 favourite.

Next time out….again off 138….beaten 32 lengths by KIKIJO….and then on to Aintree over just 2 miles 4 furlongs, off 137….dropped a lb. Got walloped as would be expected over a trip too short, on a track too sharp for it. All about getting it handicapped for the big day next month.

That now has the horse officially rated 135 so officially 2lb lower than when Skelton got it.

Before Skelton got the horse, it had won or placed in nine of its 11 runs over hurdles….but it has placed just that once for Skelton, when getting it qualified.

The two races the horse has run in at cheltenham have been over the old course, which is more of a speed test than the new….which is about stamina.

He was staying on really well that day in October and the staying test will be right up his street.

You either believe the horse has regressed….or that he’s been handicapped to win next month.”

I’d love to see Profiling prove me right, and that market move 10/1 > 7/2f…let’s see what happens.

Age groupings….10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6-8:

  • STAFFORDSHIRE KNOTT
  • ELECTRIC MASON
  • ACE OF SPADES
  • MINELLA SIXO
  • KIKIJO
  • SUPREMELY WEST
  • ABSOLUTELY DOYEN
  • CLASSIC KING
  • LAVIDA ADIVA
  • IKARAK
  • DUKE SILVER
  • MELBOURNE SHAMROCK
  • IDY WOOD
  • LETOS
  • CHAMPAGNE CHIC
  • C’EST DIFFERENT
  • MINELLA EMPEROR
  • ONEWAYWEST
  • IDEM
  • IKE SPORT

A handicap so I’m definite;lying looking at weight ranges.

Eight of the last 12 winners carried 11st 4lb, or less:

  • ELECTRIC MASON
  • ACE OF SPADES
  • MINELLA SIXO
  • KIKIJO
  • SUPREMELY WEST
  • ABSOLUTELY DOYEN
  • CLASSIC KING
  • LAVIDA ADIVA
  • IKARAK
  • DUKE SILVER
  • MELBOURNE SHAMROCK
  • IDY WOOD
  • LETOS
  • CHAMPAGNE CHIC
  • C’EST DIFFERENT
  • MINELLA EMPEROR
  • ONEWAYWEST
  • IDEM
  • IKE SPORT

We lost only one so I’m looking next at the official rating banding. Horses are trained not to win the qualifiers race, but to qualify. I’m looking at horse that were trained to achieve a Rating of between 134 and 146….nine of the last 12 winners hit that banding.

  • ELECTRIC MASON
  • ACE OF SPADES
  • MINELLA SIXO
  • KIKIJO
  • SUPREMELY WEST
  • ABSOLUTELY DOYEN
  • CLASSIC KING

Swiftly down to seven….and SUPREMELY WEST is still in there.

Market positioning next then. Seven of the last 12 winners either went of favourite (2), or were sitting front three on the tissue (5)

  • ELECTRIC MASON (7)
  • SUPREMELY WEST (8)

Down to a pair and a dutch = 250% profit

Both have finished in the frame of a qualifier, both beaten by MA SHANTOU, who runs in the Stayers Hurdle.

Both trainers, Dan Skelton and Chris Gordon, are brilliant at getting a horse handicapped and the only way I can split them is to refer back to age groupings. In the last six years the race has been won by an eight year old….ages in brackets.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – SUPREMELY WEST

THE PROFF’S TOP THREE

  • ABSOLUTELY DOYEN
  • GOWEL ROAD
  • KIKIJO

MARKET MOVERS

  • SUPREMELY WEST – 10/1 > 7/2