FRIDAY
1-15 – HANDICAP HURDLE
PROFILING
Seven of the last 10 running’s of this race have gone to horses aged five (4), or six (3), with three of those five year olds taking three of the last five.
Half of the last 20 running’s have gone to 5-y-o’s and it’s 2017 since a six year old was last successful but we’ll take them on board at this stage.
- EAST INDIA EXPRESS
- BOWENSONFIRE
- JAZZY MATTY
- SAINT ANAPOLINO
- NAVAJO INDY
- FRENCH SHIP
- TINTINTIN
- SIGN AGAIN
- MONTECAM
- LAST RODEO
- SERVICE MINIMUM
- THE EXPENSIVE ONE
With ranges next and I’m not concerned with an upper limit as two of the last 11 winners carried 11st 12lb but my lower limit would be 10st 9lb and applying that to the list above has us taking these forward:
- EAST INDIA EXPRESS
- BOWENSONFIRE
- JAZZY MATTY
- SAINT ANAPOLINO
- NAVAJO INDY
- FRENCH SHIP
- TINTINTIN
- SIGN AGAIN
- MONTECAM
- LAST RODEO
Market positions of the last 10 winners tells me we definitely want a set in the top six on the tissue. That really applies to the tissue at the off and doing this 24 hours ahead of time can lead to complications but we go with:
- EAST INDIA EXPRESS
- BOWENSONFIRE
- JAZZY MATTY
- NAVAJO INDY
- FRENCH SHIP
Down to five.
I’ll now take just the five year olds into my final grouping for profiling purposes:
- BOWENSONFIRE
- FRENCH SHIP
I’d be dutching that pair and both are trained by guys that have won this race previously. Gordon Elliott trains the first named and he won it in 2010 and 2012. Philip Hobbs and Johnson White train FRENCH SHIP and Hobbs won this back in 2007.
In the last 11 years only one winner has been Irish trained and for that reason, I’ll put up FRENCH SHIP as a profiling 20/80.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION – FRENCH SHIP 20/80
THE PROFF’S TOP THREE
- EAST INDIA EXPRESS
- CLASSIC KING
- SERVICE MINIMUM
OMMS
- NAVAJO INDY 8/1 > 6/1
1-50 – NOVICES’ CHASE
PROFILING
Just the seven runners here but that’s a big improvement on the last two years, when only four turned up….same in 2020 and 2019. We have had 15 previous running’s of this event, with five of the last 11…and the last three…all going to horses aged seven.
Only a pair qualify….THE PROFF’S TOP TWO….with ALNILAM third best with the machine. No shock that horse has seen support because the Murphy yard is flying right now, and that’s always worth a few lb at this stage of the season.
The favourite has won eight of the last 10 running’s of this race and right now KING OF KINGSFIELD (Eliott), is just favourite on 9/4, with COUNTRY MILE (Skelton), trading 5/2.
The Irish have taken the last two running’s of this one and I’ll run with KING OF KINGSFIELD.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION – KING OF KINGSFIELD
THE PROFF’S TOP THREE
- CENTARA
- KING OF KINGSFIELD
- ALNILAM
OMMS
- ALNILAM – 7/1 > 9/2
2-25 – CONDITIONAL JOCKEY’S HANDICAP HURDLE
PROFILING
Tomorrow we have just the 12th running of this race, the last seven going to horses aged five (4), and six (3). Five year olds have won the last three of these but prior to that, it was six year olds that had rattled up the hat-trick….we’ll take both:
- RUBBER BALL
- CAVERN CLUB
- NORMAN FLETCHER
- TORQUAY ROAD
- GOLD FOR ALEC
- LELOOPA
- DIAMOND TIPP
- PRINCE QUATTRO
- SCINTILLANTE
I’ll take a look next at the weights and it’s a pretty wide banding to be fair. In the last 10 years everything from 9st 13lb, to 11st 3lb and it’s nigh on impossible to pin it down to a particular narrower range so I’ll do what the market tells me and not look outside the front two on the tissue.
By applying that stat in the last decade, you have found seven of the last 10 winners….and last years winner was third favourite:
- RUBBER BALL
Just the one qualifier and so our Profile selection. He won his only previous attempt in this Class, has a 40% strike rate at this trip, five attempts, winning two, placing in another, and a 33% strike rate on the going as currently described.
However, I’d very much be considering a dutch with that pair in the OMMS section.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION – RUBBER BALL 20/80
THE PROFF’S TOP THREE
- LELOOPA
- CAVERN CLUB
- LIVERPOOL KNIGHT
OMMS
- KING WILLIAM RUFUS – 13/2 > 5/1
- CAVERN CLUB – 12/1 > 8/1
3-00 – NOVICES’ HURDLE
PROFILING
Plenty of back form to work with here and it’s the first double figure field for this race since 2005, 12 heading to post tomorrow, which makes it the biggest field as that 2005 race had just the 10 runners.
Horses aged four and five look the way to go for our first shortlist. They have taken 17 of the last 20 running’s of this event and all bar one of the last eight:
- DOCTOR BLUE
- FORTUNE DE MER
- MR MCLOUGHLAN
- THE LAST CLOUD
- UN SENS A LA VIE
- SIR GALAHAD
- GOWER SPIRIT
No point looking at weights as it’s 11st 2lb you want on the back of our profiling selection. The last three have gone to such horses so….:
- DOCTOR BLUE
- FORTUNE DE MER
- MR MCLOUGHLAN
- THE LAST CLOUD
- UN SENS A LA VIE
Seven of the last 10 winners were sited top two on the tissue and we have that pair in that quintet…:
- FORTUNE DE MER
- UN SENS A LA VIE
To split them for a definitive selection, I’ll play the stat telling me that 14 of the last 20 winner arrived having won last time out and our profile selection in that case has to be UN SENS A LA VIE.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION – UN SENS A LA VIE
THE PROFF’S TOP THREE
- THE LAST CLOUD
- SIR GALAHAD
- UN SENS A LA VIE
OMMS
3-35 – HANDICAP CHASE
PROFILING
Only 10 previous running’s of this race so right on the cusp.
Horse aged six, seven, eight and nine have won the last five running’s….we have nothing to go on there other than I’d not want a horse older than eight:
- MATATA
- BROOKIE
- UNCLE PHIL
- JASKO DES DAMES
- TRAPRAIN LAW
- DR T J ECKLEBURG
Weight ranges….I do not want anything carrying less than 10st 10lb….top banding can be left open.
- MATATA
- BROOKIE
- UNCLE PHIL
Swiftly down to three and a dutch.
A position front three on the tissue has been a positive, eight of the last 10 winners were so, let’s have a bit of that:
- MATATA
We have our profile selection, sitting top weight. If profiling is working tomorrow, the Twiston-Davies yard could be on for a quick fire double.
POST RACING PROGILE SELECTION – MATATA
THE PROFF’S TOP THREE
- JASKO DES DAMES
- CALICO
- UNCLE PHIL
OMMS
- UNCLE PHIL – 20/1 > 12/1
4-10 – NOVICES’ HURDLE
PROFILING
This has been won by some very good horses in the past, including THE NEW ONE back in 2012….the last 4-y-o to win it. Tomorrow Twiston-Davies is again represented by a 4-y-o LEADER CRIK, who has only ever raced once, in a PTP at Loughrae, 166 days ago….he finished second, and was then purchased for £160,000 11 months later. The yard won this last season with POTTERS CHARM.
He could be “anything”, as the saying goes but I cannot find anything that suggests he fits the profile of a winner of this race.
Age and weight ranges have no real bearing on the result of this race…but the market definitely does.
The last nine running’s have gone to the horse trading favourite at the off, and that includes three of the last four renewals.
Nine of the last 15 winers traded shorter than 7/4, and only one of those 15 winners went off bigger than 7/2, so fair to say the market forces dictate what wins this race.
It’s not really a race that lends itself to a full Profile but one that hits more trends than anything else is DON VIRGINIA. He won last time out, nine of the last 15 winners of this had done so,raced less than a month ago, four of the last five winners had done so, and those two things alone would have found us four of the last five winners. He has eased from 7/2 > 4/1 but that makes him a 20/80 now.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION – DON VIRGINIA 20/80
THE PROFF’S TOP THREE
- DALSTON LAD
- DON VIRGINIA
- PERCY SHELLEY
OMMS
4-45 – AMATEUR JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP CHASE
PROFILING
Even THE PROFF needs four onside here.
Six of the last nine winners returned double figure SP’s, five of the last seven coming home 11/1, 12/1, 20/1, 11/1, 10/1.
It is a fun punters race, for sure and stats/trends cannot really help in that regard. For instance, the last 11 winners has seen horses aged 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 succeed.
Just for fun I will tell you that our winner has been sitting fourth or fifth on the tissue at the off, for the last four years, nothing sitting front two has won in the last decade. Right now they are:
- ROCKINASTORM
- THE NEWEST ONE
That second named won this last year….Twiston-Davies again….but I’d go for the Patrick Mullins ridden ROCKINASTORM, who will probably try to lead from start to finish…7/1….a 20/80
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION – NONE
THE PROFF’S TOP THREE
- MORODER
- REGARDE
- ROCKINASTORM
- MY GIFT TO YOU
OMMS
- KALANISI FLASH – 8/1 > 7/1
UPDATE 11-45AM – They are really smashing into NORMAN FLETCHER and if the market is right, one of three is now winning this, and most likely the Twiston-Davies runner. FIERCELY PROUD is not budging an inch in the face of this gamble though!
