12-10 – 2m1f (2m179y) (New) British EBF ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle (Qualifier) (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4-6yo)

Only four turning out here and me telling you the winner has been front three on the tissue in eight of the last 10 running’s helps nobody as it’s 16/1 bar three right now.

Three of the last five winners have carried less than 11st, as have 50% of the last 10 and, nine of the last 10 winners were aged five, or younger….so I have it down to a pair:

  • THAT’S NICE
  • COUNTRY MILE

Seven of the last 10 winners arrived having won last time out and that points me towards THAT’S NICE….which is no bad thing because Nicky Henderson trains this one and he’s also sent out two of the last five winners.

He’s actually only sent eight for this in the last decade….two won, three placed.

Four runner races usually produce falsely run affairs so we’ll just cross everything and hope Nico has his timings right.

THE ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION

THAT’S NICE

OMMS SECTION

12-40 – 2m4½f (2m4f127y) (New) SSS Super Alloys Novices’ Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)

There will be plenty of millionaire’s fingers crossed here as CALDWELL POTTER turns out again.

He cost Sir Alex Ferguson and his mates over £600k for this fella, and to date he has recouped £8k of that when winning his novice at Carlisle.

Only four take him on and he’s odds on to add another £21k to the pot.

I see no age group bias but could possibly suggest that as five of the last six winners were aged five or six, we can hang our coats on that peg.

That narrows it down to three:

  • CALDWELL POTTER
  • JANGO BAIE
  • BALLYMACKIE

At this point I’ll employ common sense and bin the bottom one. He is the 150/1 outsider and would effectively need the others to fail to finish….and get round himself, to win this. 

So, one of CALDWELL POTTER or JANGO BAIE wins tomorrow, which is again supported by tissue stats. the winner has been front two on the tissue on nine of the last 10 times they ran this race. The trainers of these two horses have won three of the last four running’s, too…and it’s currently 13/2 bar this pair.

Having made seasonal debut appears to make a difference. You have to go back to 2016 to find the last winner not arriving having raced in the same season….but that winner was trained by Nicky Henderson (JANGO BAIE), who has saddled eight for this in the last 10 years, and saddled four winners.

I see there has only been two winning favourites in the last 10 years and whilst I am happy with a 20% profit dutching the two….I have done!…..I’m going to suggest the Henderson horse as the Profiling selection.

THE ITSCHELTENHAM PROFILING.COM SELECTION

JANGO BAIE

OMMS SECTION

1-15 – 2m1f (2m179y) (New) Catesby Estates Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-140)

A lovely 15 runner Handicap to pick the bones out of.

Horses aged five and six have taken seven of the last 10 running’s of this and they will make up my first shortlist:

  • VALGRAND
  • BO ZENITH
  • WILLMOUNT
  • TO CHASE A DREAM
  • MEDIA NARANJA
  • TINTINTIN
  • SPIRITS BAY
  • MIRABAD
  • MAGIC SEVEN

That’s got shut of six and we can now look to see how weights ranges have called it.

Only one of the last 10 winners managed to win this carrying more than 11st 5lb so first off I’ll remove those carrying more:

  • WILLMOUNT
  • TO CHASE A DREAM
  • MEDIA NARANJA
  • TINTINTIN
  • SPIRITS BAY
  • MIRABAD
  • MAGIC SEVEN

That has removed the current favourite and the Nicky Henderson runner, that has been missing longer than Lucan, BO ZENITH off the track for 610 days.

What about those at the bottom end of the weights?

I wouldn’t rule anything out. in the last 10 years we have seen winners carrying 10st 1lb, 10st 2lb, 10st 7lb, 9st 7lb….I’ll look again, if the market cannot box this off.

Seven of the last 10 winners were in the front four on the tissue, two were fifth best at the off , and only one of those last 10 winners has ever gone off bigger than 8/1….so:

  • WILLMOUNT
  • TO CHASE A DREAM

It’s down to two….dutching right now produces a profit of 170%….done.

Which wins….if either of them does?

I have to go with the Irish raider for two reasons. First, the last five winners all arrived having made seasonal debut and will mount has been off the track for 349 days, having been pulled up when last seen.

Secondly, as good as Nicky Henderson’s record here is with the classier runners, he’s saddled six for this and had four place….no winners.

THE ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION

TO CHASE A DREAM – 20/80

OMMS SECTION

1-50 – 3m2f (New) Sonic The Hedgehog 3 Coming Soon Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

A cracking good handicap, and if Kim Bailey is right and he has a Gold Cup horse in CHIANTI CLASSICO, then he’ll need to be winning this off top weight….my guess is they’ll miss Cheltenham and go for the Grand National….but if he wins this easy off top weight, giving 12lb and more to his opponents, who knows?

As you’ll see, everything is against him winning tomorrow….he’s a seven year old….only one of that age has won this in the last 10 years, from the 20 that have tried….four have placed.

He carries that 12st….only one has tried….placed.

He will go off favourite….onl;y one has won in the last decade.

So if he’s not going to win, who is?

I want to be with horses aged eight, or nine. I would have nailed 50% of the last 10 winners using that banding:

  • OUR POWER
  • BALLYGRIFFINCOTTAGE
  • JAVA POINT
  • THE NEWEST ONE

All nine year olds and the bottom pair race from out of the handicap proper, whilst the other two both fell last time we saw them on a racecourse….not looking good, is it!

Weight ranges next and six of the last nine winners (and four of the last five….and the last three), all carried less than 11st and the only one of that pair that qualifies is BALLYGRIFFIN COTTAGE.

Five of the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue….this one currently sits third best @ 7/1 so a sporting 20/80….and hopefully a winner!

THE ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILE SELECTION

BALLYGRIFFINCOTTAGE

OMMS SECTION

FIRST SHOW

  • CHIANTI CLASSICO – 3/1
  • KING TURGEON 4/1 > 7/2
  • BALLYGRIFFINCOTTAGE – 12/1 > 5/1 > 6/1
  • JAVA POINT – 14/1 > 10/1
  • THE NEWEST ONE – 16/1 > 10/1 > 12/1 > 10/1
  • CHAMBARD – 20/1 > 16/1 > 14/1
  • INZINO D’AIRY – 25/1 > 100/1 > 16/1
  • OUR POWER – 20/1 > 25/1

2-25 – 2m4½f (2m4f127y) (New) Unibet Middle Distance Chase Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Class 2)

No previous running’s of this race so, obviously, it cannot be profiled. 

We shall rely on the markets to advise as to which of the “crusties” is winning this.

I’m not a fan of novelty races and wouldn’t be betting here anyway.

NONE

OMMS SECTION

FIRST SHOW

  • SHAKEM UP’ARRY – 7/2 > 10/3 > 4/1 > 5/1
  • DASHEL DRASHER – 7/2 > 4/1 > 9/2 > 13/2
  • ELDORADO ALLEN – 5/1 > 11/2 > 13/2 > 7/1 (BF, W2)
  • COPPERHEAD – 7/1 > 6/1 > 8/1 > 17/2
  • SEDDON – 12/1 > 7/1 > 8/1 > 9/1
  • SHAN BLUE – 9/1 > 8/1
  • TORN AND FRAYED – 7/1 > 9/1
  • NUMITOR – 10/1 > 11/1
  • RAFFLE TICKET – 14/1 > 12/1 > 14/1
  • EDEN DU HOUX – 16/1 > 14/1 > 16/1
  • PAINT THE DREAM – 16/1 > 14/1 > 16/1 > 22/1

3-00 – 3m5½f (3m5f56y) (X-Country) Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+)

You know my thoughts on these Cross Country affairs….it’s time to put the kettle on. Two races in succession here I’d never bet on but I know some like these so I’ll come up with something, even if it’s off the bottom of my shoe.

Age groupings….no use whatsoever. The last eight winners have been aged 5, 7, 8 (2), 9, 10, 11, 12

Weight ranges? Nine of the last 10 winners carried between 10st 6lb – 11st 10lb and that’s a heck of a wide banding:

  • COKO BEACH
  • FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES
  • STUMPTOWN
  • CHEMICAL ENERGY
  • GEVREY
  • VANILLIER
  • LATENIGHTPASS
  • ARIZONA CARDINAL
  • THE GOFFER
  • BUSSELTON
  • MISTER COFFEY

So now we need the market to really get the pruning shears working. Seven of the last 10 winners (and four of the last five), were front three on the tissue and that gives us:

  • STUMPTOWN
  • MISTER COFFEY

The latter….14 runs over fences, 10 times placed and you would never, in a month of Sundays bet him to win….to place, definitely….but for win purposes I have to put up STUMPTOWN

The French runner on 10st 2lb might be different gravy to these but he doesn’t “fit” so….

THE ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION

STUMPTOWN

OMMS SECTION

FIRST SHOW

  • ICEO MADRIK – 4/1
  • STUMPTOWN – 9/2
  • MISTER COFFEY – 13/2
  • COKO BEACH – 7/1
  • LATENIGHTPASS – 8/1 > 15/2 (W2)
  • DELTA WORK – 8/1
  • VANILLIER – 14/1
  • ARIZONA CARDINAL – 16/1 (W)
  • FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES – 16/1
  • BUSSELTON – 25/1
  • CHEMICAL ENERGY – 25/1
  • THREE BY TWO – 33/1
  • ESCARIA TEN – 50/1
  • GEVREY – 50/1
  • STATUARIO – 50/1
  • THE GOFFER – 50/1

3-35 – 3m (2m7f213y) (New) Citipost Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)

We end with what looks like a competitive race but if the runes speak true, isn’t

Six and seven year olds dominate this and we have:

  • DOYEN QUEST
  • BHALOO
  • HIGH GAME ROYAL
  • THANKSFORTHEHELP

Only four of the 10 qualifies for the weight ranges section. Lightly weighted runners have been the “go to” range, seven of the last 10 winners carrying less than 11st and that only permits a pair to make it to the market section:

  • HIGH GAME ROYAL
  • THANKSFORTHEHELP

You 100% need to be trading front three on the tissue as eight of the last 10 and seven of the last eight winners were but, neither does….if I were to select one of the two based on market position it would be THANKSFORTHEHELP….he sits fourth on the current tissue behind the clear favourite DOYEN QUEST….7/4 that one, 13/2 bar, with everything bar the favourite drifting. 

I’ll put the pipe runner up as a 20/80 but expect the weight stats to be blown apart by this favourite.

THE ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION

THANKSFORTHEHELP – 20/80

OMMS SECTION

FIRST SHOW

  • DOYEN QUEST – 5/2
  • GOWEL ROAD – 8/1
  • MIGHT I – 8/1
  • LONG DRAW – 14/1 > 12/1
  • THANKSFORHELP – 12/1
  • WONDERFUL EAGLE – 12/1 > 14/1
  • ZAIN NIGHTS – 14/1
  • HIGH GAME ROYAL – 20/1 (BF)
  • BHALOO – 25/1
  • AN TAILLUR – 25/1 > 33/1 (H)