25TH, JANUARY, 2025

This weekend we have Festival Trials Day and we’ll hope to learn something that points us in the direction of winners in March.

I will update this page on friday and itscheltenham.com members will receive their Newsletter as usual the evening before racing.

CHELTENHAM PROFILING – SATURDAY 25/01/25

CHELTENHAM 12-40

2m4½f (2m4f127y) (New) Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+)

 Paul Nicholl’s has won the last two of these with STAGE STAR and GINNY’S DESTINY but has nothing running for him tomorrow. 

This race is usually won by a seven year old, six of the last 9 being in that age bracket and so my first shortlist contains:

  • RESPLENDENT GREY
  • RYAN’S ROCKET
  • WHISTLE STOP TOUR

Only one of the last seven winners carried less than 11st 5lb and the last two winners actually carted 12st to victory so weight isn’t stopping trains here!

Using 11st 5lb as my lower range, we take just two forward:

  • RESPLENDENT GREY
  • WHISTLE STOP TOUR

Market positioning next and only two winners have sat outside the front four on the tissue in the last decade and our profiling selection is therefore RESPLENDENY GREY. 

Currently 10/3 second favourite, carrying exactly 12st, and the right age, he’s running for a yard that has produced seven winners from it’s last 25 runners, with eight more running second or third. 

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION: RESPLENDENT GREY

CHELTENHAM 1-15

2m1f (2m179y) (New) JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Finesse) (GBB Race) (Class 1)(4yo)

 A double figure field this year and that’s good to see. Last year this was won by SIR GINO and only seven turned up.

Obviously Juvenile Graded races do not see age groupoings or weight ranges taken into account so it’s simply all about what the market was thinking.

In the last nine running’s of this, we have had five winning favourites, and only two winners were outside the front pair on the tissue.

It is currently 10/1 bar two, despite the bigger field this time around, and east india dock is the very strong 4/6 favourite. Two runs over hurdles to date, two wins. Rated 89 on the flat he is currently proving the old adage that a good flat bred will always beat a good NH bred over hurdles, to be 100% true and tomorrow he will go off odds on for the third time in three starts over obstacles.

The Nicholls  trained second favourite was a Listed hurdles winner in France last June and makes debut for the yard tomorrow. His sire was a multiple Group race winner on the flat in France and he’ll make this interesting. 

I cannot ignore trends/stats and so the favourite has to be the Profiling selection but I’m very much looking forward to seeing SAUVIGNON.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION: EAST INDIA DOCK

CHELTENHAM 1-50

2m4½f (2m4f127y) (New) Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

An 11 runner Handicap Chase to work on….lovely.

Horses aged six have won three of the last 10, horses aged eight have won five….one seven year old pulled it off in 2015 but I’m going with horses aged six, or eight for my first shortlist:

  • IL RODOTO
  • SOUL ICON

Only that pair make the cut….nothing at all I can do about it and we crack on.

Wight ranges….a pretty wide spread to be honest but I’m thinking if I said 10st 10lb – 11st 9lb, I’ll be pretty much spot on. They both fit exactly.

So market position will determine which is the Profile selection. A seat front four on the tissue is good.

Only two of the last 10 winner were bigger than 13/2 and so SOUL ICON, currently 13/2 and joint fourth favourite, gets a 20/80 gig. IL RIDOTO, who was set up handicapping wise, to win on seasonal debut, is 10/1 but he has not won twice in a single season since his days in France (2021).

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION: SOUL ICON – 20/80

CHELTENHAM 2-25

3m1½f (3m1f56y) (New) Betfair Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Only six turn out for this and four of those are aged 10, or older….like a veterans ‘chase it is! 

I only have five previous running’s of this race to work with and so cannot profile it in the usual way….I cannot profile it at all, actually!

If I take the handicap marks proper as being “Gospel”, then only L’HOMME PRESSE can win this. He is officialy rated 3lb suprior to the second favourite, GENTLEMANSGAME, and yet that horse has to give the odds on favourite 6lb so has to improve the best part of a stone to beat the Venetia Williams trained hotpot.

In third favourite….and my e.w. play….is CHANTRY HOUSE, representing Nicky Henderson. Won this race in 2022 and arrives having won over CD at the beginning of the month. He has to improve by the same amount as GENTLEMANSGAME to trouble the favourite and at 11 years of age, that isn’t going to happen. 

Perhaps he’s the one for the Exacta? 

On official ratings and at the weights, he’s the same horse as BRAVEMANSGAME and for a fun bet, that’d be my play here.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION: NONE

CHELTENHAM 3-00

2m1f (2m179y) (New) Unibet Hurdle (Registered As The International Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

 CONSTITUTION HILL is 1/10 to win this five runner event and he’s 29lb or more superior to the rest of the field. No point doing anything other than just watching this one.

CHELTENHAM 3-35

3m (2m7f213y) (New) Betfair Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

 I suggested CRAMBO would win the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in the Podcast Sean and I did on December 20th and he duly obliged @ 9/1. He will most likely go off favourite tomorrow.

I have no particular age grouping having any advantage but weight ranges might well do. Seven of the winners this last decade have carried no more than 11st 7lb and that rules out the front two on the tissue….CRAMBO and STRONG LEADER. I’m not unhappy with that!

My fisrt shortlist contains:

  • MONMIRAL
  • KERRYHILL
  • GA LAW
  • GOWEL ROAD
  • TRANSMISSION

Market position….very much suggests front two on the tissue….but I have already got rid of them. Between them they are already 0-5 at Cheltenham and CRAMBO is much better going right-handed. He is unbeaten going that way around and if it also rides soft, as is currently the case, he is also less effective. CRAMBO is 1-1 on good, and 4-7 on good to soft….1-3 on soft.

STRONG LEADER is already 0-4 at Cheltenham and much prefers a track like Aintree.

It is another race that now fails for profiling purposes and I’m going to suggest a 20/80 MONMIRAL.

He ran second to STRONG LEADER at Newbury at the end of November but think back to last years Festival and you’ll remember him winning over this course and distance, on soft ground, taking the Pertemps Final.

He is around 8/1 now, the same price as GA LAW, who is a steeplechaser that has not won over hurdles since doing so in France, back in 2019. I’ll be amazed if he has the pace to win over hurdles at this level. There is a reason he only saw the smaller obstacles three times in his life.

GOWEL ROAD….ultra consisten but he has yet to win over further than 2 miles 5 furlongs and loves to see at least one backside in front of him….placed second or third in eight of his 19 runs over hurdles and not won since 2022.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION: NONE

CHELTENHAM 4-10

2m4½f (2m4f56y) (New) AIS Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Classic Novices’ Hurdle) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Won last year by Harry Fry’s GIDLEIGH PARK, and while I can confidently state a six year old will win it (six of the last nine have), only seven go to post and the front six on the tissue are six year olds….pointless then, wasnt it.

The last eight winners sat front three on the tissue and as both age and weight ranges mean diddly squat here, it’s one of:

  • POTTERS CHARM
  • BILL JOYCE
  • QUEBECOIS

The first named is trained by Nigel twiston-Davies, who has run only one in this previously and won it with WHOLESTONE, in 2017. That horse then went on to run third in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival, in the same year.

POTTERS CHARM is 4-4 over hurdles to date, twice winning over the old course at Cheltenham. That track is for speed horses, whilst the old course is definitely made for those that stay. Will he be as suited to a staying race, where you are on the turn a lot more?

It is 9/2 bar the favourite and with seven of the last 10 winners arriving havoing won last time out, and he being the only one of that trio named to be doing that, he’s the Profile selection.

ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION: POTTERS CHARM