I thought I’d put pen to paper for the very first Cheltenham meeting of the new season and Profile the meeting for those looking to use this website for information and advice.

The new season starts soon, with the Badger meeting at Wincanton my own point of reference as to when the core season begins but we’ll hopefully have some fun with this today.

PROFILING

CHELTENHAM 1-35

A conditional jockey’s event, which I usually avoid like the plague for punting purposes.

The last five running’s, and six of the 10 renewals I’m working with, have gone to horses aged five, or six and so the first shortlist concentrates on the following:

  • ROYAL EAGLE
  • TEDDY BLUE
  • CASTEL GANDOLFO
  • GLORIOUS ZOFF
  • ALIEN STORM
  • CLARENS
  • BALLYGEARY
  • ELHAM VALLEY
  • OUR CHAMP
  • COOLNAUGH
  • BUKHILL

Next port of call is weight ranges and most certainly I do not want anything carrying more than 11st as none of the last eight winners had a bit of lead in their saddles that took them over that figure so from that first shortlist we’ll take the following forward:

  • GLORIOUS ZOFF
  • ALIEN STORM
  • CLARENS
  • BALLYGEARY
  • ELHAM VALLEY
  • OUR CHAMP
  • COOLNAUGH
  • BUKHILL

Down to a respectable eight and so now I’ll look at how the market looked as the tapes went up and most certainly, you do not want to be sitting outside the front four on the tissue. Indeed, the last five winners, and six of the last seven, sat front two in the market but let’s go four at this point:

  • GLORIOUS ZOFF
  • ALIEN STORM
  • CLARENS
  • BALLYGEARY
  • ELHAM VALLEY
  • OUR CHAMP
  • COOLNAUGH
  • BUKHILL

As can happen at this time of season, this race stalls for full Profiling purposes at this point. None of those named trades shorter than 12/1 as I type, so one of two things happens here. Either one of AFADIL or SHETLAND TONY wins….a pair of 4-y-o’s trading the right price, or we get a bit of an “unexpected” result.

They can happen!

From the list the three to take forward would be:

  • ALIEN STORM
  • CLARENS
  • OUR CHAMP

ALIEN STORM and OUR CHAMP met at Plumpton last month and would most likely have finished 1-2 had the first named not fallen at the last. OUR CHAMP went off favourite and would most probably have won.

Overnight there has been a move for OUR CHAMP, probably because he’s a Pricewise “pick” today. He’d be my selection from that trio also.

PROFILING SELECTION: OUR CHAMP – 20/80

CHELTENHAM 2-10

The winner is one of MY MATE MOZZIE, or JETRONIC but four runner races give us nothing to work with from a Profiling point of view.

If you use those for competiti0n purposes you get 15 points and with favourites winning eight of the last 10 running’s, let’s say MY MATE MOZZIE is the 15 pointer as he’s odds on to win this. I should say he was also odds on on debut but got turned over by a 50/1 shot!

PROFILING SELECTION: MY MATE MOZZIE

CHELTENHAM 2-45

Another race dominated previously by five and six year old’s, nine of the last 10 running’s going to a horse from those age groups….:

  • EVERYONESGAME
  • ENCANTO BRUNO
  • HERE COMES GEORGIE
  • ISAAC DES OBEAUX
  • KATATE DORI
  • EL ELEFANTE
  • MEL MONROE

Weight ranges do not give anything away here and so I’ll let the market guide me. Two things are quickly apparent. First, you need to be trading front two on the tissue as eight of the last 10 winners occupied those spots in the market at the off and secondly, arriving having won last time out is vital….the last three winners had and, also eight of the last 10 winners, too.

Only one horse qualifies.

PROFILING SELECTION: EL ELEFANTE

CHELTENHAM 3-20

Only two previous running’s of this race so impossible to produce a profiling selection.

CHELTENHAM 3-55

We start by picking out the four and five year old’s here. They have dominated this race, winning nine of the last 10 renewals, five year olds winning seven of those:

  • ACT OF AUTHORITY
  • IDY WOOD
  • PARADE AWAY
  • WILLIETHEBUILDER

Again weight ranges mean diddly squat so markets  will hopefully indicate a horse to work with here. You must be trading front two on the tissue, as again eight of the last 10 winners were so from that list we take:

  • WILLIETHEBUILDER

He is the only four year old in here and is currently the 7/2 joint second favourite. Another plus is the fact he arrives having had a run this season….and he won. With eight of the last 10 winners having also both those things, he looks the selection.

PROFILING SELECTION: WILLIETHEBUILDER

CHELTENHAM 4-30

An amateur riders handicap and the first race today that has a whiff of Mission Impossible. The last five winners returned SP’s of 11/1, 12/1, 20/1, 7/1, 11.1 but hopefully the runes cast show us a way in.

First short list is made up of horses aged seven, eight, or nine. They account for eight of the last 10 winners so, age and a little experience count.

  • HEREWEGOHONEY
  • ALMAZHAR GARDE
  • TIM PAT
  • ONE TRUE KING
  • STRICTLYADANCER
  • MENINDEE
  • ARCTIC AMBITION
  • GOOD WORK
  • BELLS OF PETERBORO
  • DESTINY IS ALL
  • JONY MAX
  • ENEMENEMYNEMO

I’m going to apply a very narrow weight range next 10st 12lb – 11st 8lb….that net would have caught seven of the last 10 winners, and only two of the last 10 winners carried more than that top weight in my banding so….:

  • ARCTIC AMBITION
  • GOOD WORK
  • BELLS OF PETERBORO
  • DESTINY IS ALL
  • JONY MAX
  • ENEMENEMYNEMO

Down to six and whilst I pointed out the SP’s returned of the last few winners earlier, it’s a fact that a) the winner has been front six on the tissue in seven of the last 10 running’s and, we can safely disregard the favourite as three of the last four have pulled up and, it’s eight years since one last even placed and from the six we have:

  • ARCTIC AMBITION
  • BELLS OF PETERBORO

Two make the final cut and if you ever bet such races they make a dutch that is worth playing.

We want one for Profiling purposes though and I’d have to go with ARCTIC AMBITION because the other critter arrives a maiden over fences whilst the Irish raider has won three and placed in five of his nine over the larger obstacles.

PROFILING SELECTION: ARCTIC AMBITION – 20/80

CHELTENHAM 5-05

It’s those five and six year old’s again here as they’ve taken eight of the last 10 renewals of this event so let’s go with our first shortlist:

  • LALLYGAG
  • SOUL ICON
  • RAMBO T
  • KANSAS CITY STAR
  • ROCKY MAN
  • SERIOUS OPERATOR
  • STRINGTOYOURBOW
  • MONEYNABANE

Most definitely you want to be carrying less than 11st. If you had been looking for something to win this carrying more than 11st over the last decade, you’ve punted eight losing races….:

  • RAMBO T
  • KANSAS CITY STAR
  • ROCKY MAN
  • SERIOUS OPERATOR
  • STRINGTOYOURBOW
  • MONEYNABANE

Two gone so now we head to the market place for clues and our last 10 winners have all been front six on the tissue as the tapes went up and those qualifying are:

  • RAMBO T
  • ROCKY MAN
  • SERIOUS OPERATOR

Again, those that play the dutch have a serious play. I reported to my Post Racing subscribers earlier this morning that overnight the players had been on SERIOUS OPERATOR and of the three that horse would be my qualifier here….20/80, of course.

PROFILING SELECTION: SERIOUS OPERATOR – 20/80