PROFILING
This years renewal has a funny feel to it and attempting to Profile races with such small fields feels daft.
We have seven going to post but age rules out STEEL ALLY, and HANSARD….horses older than seven simply do not win this race….well, EDWARDSTONE did as an eight year old in 2022 but that was an anomaly.
We have seen 11 of the last 12 winners aged six, or seven, and that stat rules out LULAMBA, a five year old. The last horse of that age to win an Arkle was VOY POR USTEDES in 2006 and only four have managed to do it in the last 50 years.
That leaves me with the two Mullins runners, KOPEK DES BORDES, and KARGESE and all trends suggest neither can win it for a variety of reasons.
KOPEK DES BORDES fails by virtue of the fact has has only had one run over fences, and 11 of the last 12 winners had raced over fences at least twice. He has also been “missing in action” for 113 days, when we know that 10 of the last 11 winners had raced within the last 51 days before coming here.
KARGESE arrives officially Rated 149, and in the last 10 years pnly two horses have won this off a Rating lower than 151 and they returned SP’s of 33/1 and 16/1.
So, what I’m saying is, nothing fits as a Profiling selection, and I will not just make one up….your money matters to me.
What intrigues me is, KARGESE trades just 9/2 and, he ran in the Irish Arkle, which has produced 10 of the last 12 winners of this race. Had he been officially Rated 1lb higher, I would have not hesitated in putting him up as my Profiling selection….he loves Cheltenham. He was runner up in the 2024 Triumph Hurdle, and came back last season to win the County Hurdle.
Officially he’s a stone inferior to LULAMBA.
I’ll not suggest a bet here but I’d not put you off having a little e.w. bet on KARGESE.
ITSCHELTENHAM.COM PROFILING SELECTION – NONE
THE PROFF’S TOP THREE
- LULAMBA
- KOPEK DES BORDES
- MABONUMBERFIVE
MARKET MOVERS
TO FOLLOW
